The European Commission is expected to reject the Government's plans for greenhouse gas reductions as insufficient to meet Ireland's obligations under the Kyoto Protocol on climate change.
The Government's failure to curb huge increases in carbon dioxide emissions from transport, specifically its U-turn on plans for a carbon tax, are expected to be highlighted by the commission today.
A lack of detail over how the Government proposes to make up its projected 30 million tonne shortfall in reaching its Kyoto commitments between 2008 and 2012 is also expected to be raised by the commission today when it delivers its verdict on Ireland's National Allocation Plan (NAP) on greenhouse gas emissions. The commission is expected to tell the Government that it will need to provide more detailed information and commitments before the plan, submitted last June, can be accepted.
Yesterday, however, Minister for the Environment Dick Roche said he was "not unduly concerned" about today's announcement. He said he expected the commission would accept the plan once a few modifications were made.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, Ireland is legally obliged to keep greenhouse gas emissions to just over 63 million tonnes per annum from 2008 to 2012, but it could overshoot this target by more than seven million tonnes per annum.
Under the current NAP, the industrial sector will be responsible for three million tonnes of this shortfall, either through reductions or purchasing carbon credits through the emissions trading scheme. The plan for industry is expected to be accepted by the commission with minor modifications.
Most of the remaining four million tonne shortfall will be addressed by the Government purchasing carbon credits. However, the commission is expected to criticise this aspect of the plan as being insufficient in detail. It is also expected to highlight that the Government has few detailed measures in its plan to tackle transport emissions, which have risen by nearly 150 per cent since 1990.
Mr Roche said he had been in telephone contact yesterday with the EU environment commissioner, Stavros Dimas. He said the Government was this week introducing legislation on its plans to purchase carbon credits through the European Regional Development Bank and the World Bank.
Ireland is one of 11 countries whose plans are expected to be criticised. The commission is set to crack down on several states, including Germany, Europe's largest polluter, for over-allocating permits to industry to enable them to produce greenhouse gases. The commission fears an over-allocation of permits could undermine the emissions trading scheme, the cornerstone of Europe's strategy to implement the Kyoto Protocol.