If William Hague's "commonsense" majority in this election actually exists, then the Conservatives must surely win back from Labour the prosperous Birmingham suburb of Edgbaston.
Dame Jill Knight held the seat for the Tories from 1966 until she stepped down at the last election when Labour sneaked in and took the seat with a majority of nearly 5,000. It was the first marginal to go Labour's way on election night in 1997 and the Tories are desperate to secure a 5 per cent swing in their favour to prove the defeat of four years ago was a once-off. It is a seat never before held by Labour. In this election, William Hague has campaigned tirelessly on the issue of Britain's possible membership of the euro, which two-thirds of voters say they don't want to join. His "Keep the Pound" rally has criss-crossed the country, but a rump of senior Tories say the decision to focus on the single currency has been a massive miscalculation. The Conservative candidate in Edgbaston, Nigel Hastilow, a former editor of the Birmingham Post who says he will campaign for an inquiry into the Birmingham pub bombings if he is elected, dismisses polls which say the euro is not an issue on the doorstep. "I think the euro is an important issue. We are the only party in this constituency that doesn't want to scrap the pound at the first opportunity," he told me. Mr Hastilow was campaigning alongside the former Conservative Health Secretary, Sir Norman Fowler, yesterday. Sir Norman insists he has been struck by the strength of antieuro feeling locally.
"I'm in the middle of the euro argument," he says. "I don't agree with the criticism that this is not a national issue. It is in the Midlands."
We head off along Fitzroy Avenue, where expensive detached houses sit back from the road and where many of the residents employ a cleaner and a gardener. Conservative heartland. "It's good for morale, this constituency," Sir Norman observes.
A middle-aged couple planning to vote Conservative stand in the drive of their large home and engage Hastilow in a discussion about the euro and what he describes as the "secret issue" in the election - asylum-seekers. He tells them it's nonsense to argue that Britain should join the single currency. As the conversation turns to asylum, the woman declares that it is "sick-making" that Britain is a soft touch for asylum-seekers. Her husband wonders why the Inland Revenue investigated his friend at the golf club and not "the coloured variety, who you know are swindling." The wealthy residents of Edgbaston have traditionally voted Conservative and many say it is a decision based on "conscience". Others say: "Blair disgusts me." But many are already lost to the Tories. One elderly resident of Fitzroy Avenue says he has lost faith in all politicians. "I'm a Jehovah's Witness," he explains. "I don't believe in earthly government."
Despite the largely positive response on the doorstep, there is some worrying news for Hastilow The local Evening Mail has just published a poll putting Labour 18 points ahead of the Tories in Edgbaston. Hastilow says the poll is "absolute nonsense" but on Harborne High Street, the main shopping area, Labour voters are out in force. Even the undecided declare that Hague would not make a good prime minister.
"I suppose it's the lesser of three evils," complains Keith, who says he will probably vote Labour. "The Lib Dems aren't in a position to hold power and when you think about it, the Conservatives are pretty much a mess at the moment."