There is still a wide gap between the numbers on the table and what science says is needed, writes FRANK MCDONALD
AN INDEPENDENT assessment of all the pledges to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions tabled so far by both developed and developing countries for the Copenhagen climate summit “shows that the world is headed for a global warming of well over 3 degrees Celsius by 2100”.
The assessment, carried out by Dutch renewable energy consultancy Ecofys, projected that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere would rise to more than 650 parts per million based on current pledges – well above the 450ppm tipping point.
Dr Niklas Höhne of Ecofys said the numbers on the table “will not halt emissions growth before 2040, let alone by 2015 as indicated by the [UN] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and are far from halving emissions by 2050, as has been called for by the G8”.
Dr Bill Hare of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said its analysis showed that total GHG emissions would be about 55 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent per year from all sources, a reduction of about three billion tonnes, compared to “business-as-usual”.
In 10 years from now, he said, global emissions would already have to be “well below” current levels to have much chance of meeting temperature goals such as 2 degrees, as called for by the IPCC globally, or below 1.5 degrees as demanded by many of the more vulnerable countries.
After accounting for the recent pledge by President Barack Obama of a US emission reduction “in the range of 17 per cent”, the developed country emission reductions as a whole are projected to be 13-19 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.
Although China had ambitious policies on energy efficiency and renewable energy, a reduction from “business-as-usual” emissions by the developing countries as a group of 15-30 per cent in 2020 would be needed to limit global warming to 2 degrees or even lower, Ecofys said.
On deforestation, it said the analysis had accounted for recent announcements by Brazil and Indonesia which, taken together, would reduce emissions from deforestation globally by about 40 per cent from recent levels by 2020 – making “a very important contribution”.
A separate assessment by the UN Environment Programme and economist Lord (Nicholas) Stern reached similar conclusions – although it said the gap between the strongest targets and what is needed was “only a few billion tonnes”.
It estimated that in order to have a reasonable chance, or 50 per cent probability, of avoiding a rise in global temperature of more than 2 degrees, global emissions of GHGs in 2020 need to be no more than 44 billion tonnes of “CO2-equivalent” (including methane, for example).
If this was exceeded, the study warned, “it is likely to be more difficult and costly to reach the goal as much stronger action would be required in decades afterwards”. Thus, it urged developed countries to deliver on their commitments and help developing nations to do so.
“No one should be under any illusion”, Lord Stern said. “Reaching the target to cut annual emissions to 44 billion tonnes in 2020, by bridging the remaining gap of a few billion tonnes, will require governments . . . to match words with deeds and ambition with action.”
If they did take the measures required over the next decade, the economist, noted for his 2006 analysis of the costs of climate changes, said “we could embark on the most dynamic and creative period of the world’s economic history, a new energy and industrial revolution”.
Further details from www.climatetracker.org