ROMANIA: Romania goes to the polls in the shadow of the Ukraine, reports Daniel McLaughlin in Bucharest
He sports a bright orange jacket to address a throng of similarly-clad supporters and says he will do all that it takes to topple a corrupt, Communist-era elite that is keen to keep him out of power.
This is Romania, not Ukraine, but presidential candidate Mr Traian Basescu has co-opted the colour of liberal protesters in Kiev to symbolise the battle he hopes to win in tomorrow's election.
The choice, he says, is stark: Romanians can return the Social Democrats (PSD) and watch ex-Communist politicians and their business allies continue to line their pockets. Or they can choose his Justice and Truth Alliance and strike their own blow for democracy.
Mr Basescu's campaign message is simple: "Evolution not revolution". He insists that victory for his side would drive the final nail into the coffin of the late dictator Mr Nicolae Ceausescu, and bury his legacy before EU accession set for 2007.
"If the current lot retain power, they will only export their corruption and cronyism to the rest of Europe," Mr Basescu told The Irish Times.
He accuses his opponent in the race, incumbent Prime Minister Mr Adrian Nastase, of leading an administration bent on controlling business, the media and the legal system while pretending to implement crucial EU reforms. Mr Basescu says he wants "to lead Romania into the EU as a strong, stable, clean country".
The PSD has governed Romania's 22 million people for all but four years since Mr Ceausescu was ousted and executed 15 years ago. And as it led Romania into NATO this year - as a staunch US ally with a useful military airbase by the Black Sea, and a few hundred troops deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq - the PSD government faltered on its EU entry requirements.
Competition law and anti-corruption measures still need to be strengthened, and doubt lingers over the independence of the judiciary and media. And although Bucharest is expected to conclude accession talks before the EU December summit, Brussels can rightfully delay Romania's membership should it fail to meet its 2007 reform targets.
For many, their worries were confirmed this week when a leading newspaper published what were said to be transcripts of government meetings, which contained lurid details of plans to rig votes, launch investigations into political opponents and emasculate the media.
While Mr Nastase dismisses the documents as crude fakes, one Bucharest-based Western diplomat said their tone rang true and their content was credible.
But in a country dependent on state-owned broadcasting, the scandal may have little impact on the government's showing this weekend.
The outgoing president, Mr Ion Iliescu, is a hugely popular figure, particularly in conservative rural areas, where the PSD and its ally the Orthodox Church are two of the nation's few post-Communist certainties.
"In the countryside, the electorate is conservative, afraid of European Union integration, of the market economy, of competition," said independent analyst Mr Stelian Tanase. "Poverty makes these voters more dependant on the state and, in their eyes, Nastase is the state."
With an average monthly wage of around 150, many Romanians feel they are gaining little from economic growth that is estimated at 8.1 per cent for this year.
Many say they have grown poorer since the demise of the dictator. One pensioner, Sebastian Merisan, says: "I won't even have the money for my own funeral".
Yet in a country where the media is largely docile, faith in politicians is minimal and where 15 years of upheaval weigh heavily, disaffection with government does not necessarily translate into votes for Mr Basescu.
He enjoys a wide support base among the growing urban middle class, yet many city dwellers think he has risen far enough.
He speaks directly and passionately, yet he is widely perceived as lacking the gloss to represent Romania on the world stage. Meanwhile, Mr Nastase has tried to moderate his urbane, somewhat aloof image ahead of tomorrow's vote, shedding his designer suits in favour of country wear and eager now to be seen reaching out to ordinary peasants.
For their part, the PSD says Mr Basescu lacks the experience and gravitas to take Romania into the EU. They say he would be a liability as leader at this crucial time.
"He seems genuine and has good ideas for simplifying and cleaning up business, but many people just don't see him as a leader," company manager Mr Florin Radoiu said of him. "In fact, lots of Romanians, especially in the countryside, seem unable to imagine anyone but the PSD leading the nation."
There are many analysts who praise Mr Basescu's plans to slash bureaucracy and simplify a fiscal code that does little to discourage tax evasion, with the upshot that some 40 per cent of Romanian business exists in the "shadow economy".
He has also pledged to speed up work on the reams of legislation that must be made EU-compatible prior to 2007.
"The Alliance offers a liberal, pro-EU platform in which they argue for accelerating the process . . . that's very appetizing, especially as the EU has found grounds to criticise some of the government performance on the EU accession process," said Mr Matthew Vogel, director of Barclays Capital in Bucharest.
Mr Jonathan Scheele, head of the European Commission delegation in Romania, said the country is on track to join the EU by the agreed date, as long as the new government shows real commitment to solving key problems.
"There has been an important change from two years ago, in that the government has recognized areas of corruption and is no longer in denial," he told this newspaper. "But more still needs to be done."
One Western diplomat, however, cast doubt on the ability of the PSD to deliver the knockout blow to pervasive graft: "It's very hard to fight corruption if everyone has skeletons in their closet," he said.
Striking a note that carried some resonance so close to Ukraine, Mr Basescu claimed this week that the PSD would falsify the vote count to maintain its grip on power.
"How the election is conducted will be a sign of Romania's maturity as a democracy," Mr Scheele cautioned, while playing down the likelihood of mass demonstrations to contest the result.
Mr Basescu, for his part comfortable in a business suit rather than bright orange campaign jacket, said he would do everything possible to ensure a free and fair vote.
"I don't see a Ukrainian scenario here," he said. "But in the end, nobody can control the people."