OUTGOING Independent TD Mildred Fox had a spectacular triumph in the 1995 by election caused by the death of her father, Johnny Fox, but since then she has maintained a low profile in the Dail.
Within the constituency, views of her prospects in this election are varied. She did well in the by elect ion because of her father's solid record and the inevitable sympathy factor, but this time she could be vulnerable, some say.
Others disagree, arguing that her lack of profile as a parliamentarian means little in the constituency, and that Ms Fox carefully nurtures the grassroots, regularly turning up to meetings and functions and remaining personally popular. She will, they claim, comfortably hold her seat.
In 1992, Johnny Fox ran as an Independent after failing to be nominated at the Fianna Fail selection convention. He caused a major surprise when he defeated one of the party's sitting TDs Dick Roche, for the last seat. Mr Roche was subsequently elected to the Seanad and stood unsuccessfully in the by election.
This time he is running with the party's only outgoing TD in the constituency, the Leas Cheann Comhairle, Mr Joe Jacob, and Councillor Michael Lawlor. The party's hopes for a second seat rest with either Mr Roche or Mr Lawlor taking it back from Ms Fox, or unseating the outing Democratic Left TD and Minister of State for the Environment, Ms Liz McManus, but it will be an uphill struggle.
Last time, the Fianna Fail vote dropped to 25.3 per cent, its lowest in the State and the lowest in Wicklow since 1927. Nevertheless, Mr Roche and Mr Lawlor were campaigning hard long before the election was called.
For a time, the decision by sitting Fine Gael TD Godfrey Timmins to retire created panic within the party, raising the possibility that it might lose its only seat in the constituency. Then his son Billy, a former Army officer, decided to run.
George Jones, who had left Fine Gael after party headquarters had groomed Senator Shane Ross for a seat, returned to the fold, bringing with him the support of his breakaway Voice of Wicklow group.
The third Fine Gael candidate is the Arklow based Councillor Tom Honan, who was the party's candidate in the by election. Mr Timmins will bring his father's west Wicklow support with him and is also likely to secure the Fine Gael vote in the section of east Carlow which is now part of the constituency.
He will be concerned, however, that last time his father's first preferences fell by 3,049 to 4,012, leaving him in sixth position on the first count.
Billy Timmins could see the family seat under threat from Mr Jones, a county councillor and a member of Greystones Town Commissioners, who retained a strong following during his years outside the party.
He has been publicly endorsed by a former Fine Gael TD for the constituency, Ms Gemma Hussey.
In Arklow, Mr Honan will be marking the Independent Nicky Kelly, a member of the urban council and regarded locally as a full time politician. Mr Kelly polled 4,556 first preference votes in the by election and is not to be dismissed, although securing support outside his own base will be difficult.
Should Mr Honan be eliminated first and pass on a substantial local transfer to Mr Kelly, it could raise all kinds of possibilities in what could be a dogfight for the last two seats.
Labour's Liam Kavanagh increased his first preferences by 3,302 to 11,843 the last time, securing 1.4 quotas. This time Mr Kavanagh has a running mate, Bray based Dr Tim Collins, who ran in the by election, but there will be one Labour TD in Wicklow after June 6th and that will be Liam Kavanagh.
It was a transfer of 1,020 of Mr Kavanagh's surplus that helped Ms McManus get elected in 1992, but she cannot rely on it this time, given that the Labour TD's vote will be down. However, her profile as a Minister of State and her constituency work are expected to secure her seat.
