A gun amnesty is planned to reduce weapons available to criminals, writes Conor Lally. Of 83 gun killings since 1998, just 14 have resulted in convictions
On the morning of Tuesday, April 12th last, two pistol shots shattered the peace in the Ongar estate, one of west Dublin's new suburbs near Clonsilla.
Both hit their intended victim, 28-year-old Dubliner Joe Rafferty. The father of one, who was originally from the inner city, was about to get into his van just after 9am and begin his day's work as a courier.
Hit by two bullets, he turned and tried to flee but badly wounded, he fell on to a grass verge and died moments later.
When asked if she had any idea why her brother was targeted, Rafferty's sister, Sandra, said: "No, we don't know. I got a phone call this morning. They said it was on the news. I had heard nothing."
In the hours immediately after, some detectives were privately telling reporters there may have been a drugs link to the murder.
They believed Rafferty had become involved in a personal dispute with a Dublin drug dealer and that he paid the ultimate price.
But five weeks on, we now know that Rafferty's killing had nothing to do with drugs or organised crime. One of his associates was beaten up at a party earlier this year. There ensued a number of low-level tit- for-tat incidents in which Rafferty became embroiled. The opposing faction decided to bring things to a close by shooting him.
The mundane cause of this gun murder and other recent killings is worrying senior detectives. Gun killings are no longer confined to the organised crime set. Ordinary criminals, some of whom have only a number of minor convictions, are increasingly cropping up in murder investigations.
It is this culture, and the recent spate of armed robberies, that the Garda's new Operation Anvil is trying to address.
In the last decade, gangland murders have usually had a clear and substantial motive. Victims have been blamed for stealing money or drugs from other criminals or they have been suspected of feeding information to gardaí to keep themselves out of prison.
But of the seven gangland- style murders so far in Dublin this year, only one could be considered a genuine gangland killing - that of Terry Dunleavy who was shot at Croke Villas in the north inner city on April 14th. He was killed because he stole a large sum of money from another criminal.
In five other cases, the victims were killed in personal disputes. Gardaí are unsure if the remaining victim was killed over a drugs deal or a personal dispute. "What we have now is a sea change, there is absolutely no doubt about it," said one senior officer.
"We now have the worrying new trend that people are being shot for basically no reason."
The ceasefire in Northern Ireland has resulted in some former paramilitaries becoming involved in for-profit crime.
These have easy access to firearms. Many are from Dublin and live in the city. Two of the seven killings in Dublin this year, including that of Joe Rafferty, were carried out by people with strong links to republican paramilitaries, gardaí say.
The break-up of the former Yugoslavia and the conflicts which accompanied this resulted in eastern Europe being flooded with weapons. Many of these guns are finding their way to Ireland with drug shipments.
The guns - including automatic and semi-automatic machineguns which can fire 1,000 rounds a minute - are included in drug shipments as "sweeteners" by international drugs gangs selling illicit drugs from Europe to Irish criminals.
Irish gangs are also sourcing guns in robberies. There are currently around 215,000 legally held firearms here. Owners are required to undergo vetting by gardaí before being issued with a gun licence. These licences are reissued every year.
Of the 1,330 weapons stolen between 2002 and 2004, 961 were shotguns, 271 were rifles and 28 were pistols or revolvers. A number of gangs involved in the robberies of weapons are renting them for use to other criminals.
Minister for Justice Michael McDowell and Garda Commissioner Noel Conroy have expressed concern at the number of firearms being stolen. They have encouraged those who own guns to store them in a locked compartment and to remove firing pins when they are not being used.
Mr McDowell has included in the Criminal Justice Bill a number of provisions aimed at curbing gun crime, which increased by 38 per cent to 290 cases of detected discharging of firearms last year.
The new measures in the Bill include mandatory sentencing for firearms offences and making it a specific offence to modify a weapon, such as sawing off the barrel of a shotgun.
Those who commit gangland killings are seldom apprehended. Of the 83 gun killings committed since the beginning of 1998, just 14 have resulted in convictions.
In a number of the murders this year, the suspected gunmen have been interviewed by gardaí. However, they have failed to respond to any questions, save to say "no comment".
That so many are getting away with murder begets a belief among these "ordinary criminals" that they can act without fear of ever being caught.