Faith in their leaders may decide how members vote

But the immense respect for and trust in the Sinn Fein leadership are the reason activists have not followed their gut instincts…

But the immense respect for and trust in the Sinn Fein leadership are the reason activists have not followed their gut instincts and rejected the agreement.

One delegate from Dublin told The Irish Times: "When I read the agreement, my heart sank. I thought, `This isn't what we fought the past 30 years for.' But this is the deal the leadership brought back and we should be guided by what they tell us."

By announcing at the ardfheis that a special conference will be held within the next month specifically to discuss the document, the leaders ensured that serious criticism would be postponed.

They also now have the advantage of having heard delegates air their preliminary views. They will be able to identify critics and work hard either to win over or marginalise them. There were strong hints that the leadership will recommend that Sinn Fein enter a new Assembly.

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Although no one at the most senior leadership level recommended this, they appeared to have put out feelers through influential figures such as Mr Sean McManus from Sligo and the former Fermanagh-South Tyrone MP, Mr Owen Carron, who both spoke in favour of entering the Assembly.

"The leadership have changed this movement very slowly. This weekend they tested the waters about Stormont and planted the idea of entering in people's heads," said one Tyrone republican. "They will come out publicly in favour of it themselves at the special ardfheis."

Entering Stormont would involve changing Sinn Fein's constitution, which requires a two-thirds majority. About one-third of speakers appeared to be against the agreement and the Assembly, so it could be a close call.

But the faith most delegates have in their leaders will sway many doubters and sceptics. One Belfast delegate said: "The republican movement has the best leaders it ever had. Men like Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and Gerry Kelly would never sell us short."

Another Belfast member said: "If we agree to go into the Assembly, we will get a much larger vote and overtake the SDLP."

However, for a core of Sinn Fein members electoral success is not the main priority. A Dublin activist said the agreement should be rejected, even if electoral losses followed, because it copperfastened partition and was aimed at destroying republicanism.

"There are things more important than votes. If we accept this deal we are finished."

Most criticism of the agreement came from Southern delegates. The vast majority of Northerners spoke in favour of the deal, although the strongest opposition came from two speakers from Belfast.

A Belfast member told The Irish Times: "It is crazy to argue the deal is a victory for republicans. The British are still here, the Border remains, and the RUC is not being disbanded. The document offers very little to republicans, only token changes. If we have to go back to war, so be it."

But an increasing number of Sinn Fein members appear willing to take the constitutional, nationalist path.