The fertility rate is below the replacement rate in all member-states and sustainable economic growth will depend on "an adequate integration of newcomers into social and economic life", according to a European Commission report. The new report, "The Social Situation in the European Union", identifies immigrants, women in the home and older people as the main sources to fill the population growth deficit.
Since 1960 there has been a 2.6 per cent increase in the EU's population, but numbers are expected to fall after 2020. Of this increase just over a quarter is due to natural internal population growth, the rest to net inward migration. The Republic recorded the second highest growth at 10.7 per cent, of which 5.8 per cent was due to natural population increases and 4.9 per cent to immigration. Luxembourg recorded the highest growth, 15 per cent, of which 10.9 per cent was due to inward migration. The next highest was the Netherlands at 6.6 per cent, of which 2.8 per cent was due to inward migration.
Other member-states recorded less than 5 per cent growth overall and, in the case of Germany, Greece, Italy and Sweden there was negative growth in terms of natural population. Population growth due to inward migration exceeded the natural increase in 10 of the 15 member-states. The most dramatic example was Germany, where the natural "increase" was minus 0.9 per cent but inward migration accounted for an increase of 2.4 per cent.
The report says migration from outside the EU was concentrated in economically dynamic regions and large urban centres, which were becoming multicultural in composition. So far the impact on the indigenous population had been moderate, but the situation would change, and much more needed to be done to ensure newcomers were welcomed and integrated into society.
It added that adjustment would also be needed to an ageing workforce. "The challenge for the social partners and for government policy-makers is likely to be considerable. To enable and motivate older workers to remain in the labour force as long as possible, member-states will need to develop policies to promote active ageing." These include maintaining the health and work ability of older workers, better access to further education and training and "an employment-friendly mix of incentives and disincentives".
It does not spell out what the disincentives should be but if policies towards the long-term unemployed are anything to go by it could mean penalising early retirement schemes and higher income tax thresholds for pensioners returning to the workplace.
The Tanaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Ms Harney, has announced new arrangements to allow Community Employment participants aged over 50 to remain in the programme longer than the normal period of three years. The move in seen as an effort to attract more older people back into the workforce to meet labour shortages.
Ms Harney said: "Despite the many employment opportunities currently available in the labour market, it is clear that some participants on CE continue to experience difficulties in getting jobs whether due to age, health, literacy, numeracy, or a lack of suitable jobs locally."