According to local sources automatic gunfire has been heard in the wooded hills above Scotstown in Co Monaghan in the past two weeks. The hills, with their thousands of acres of thick forest, provide perfect cover for such activities.
It is not known who was responsible for the gunfire. However, according to local Garda sources the area where the shooting was heard has been used in the past only by the Provisional IRA.
There is no known dissident organisation in the area. According to local sources almost all the Provisional IRA people in the area of north Monaghan and south Tyrone remained loyal to the organisation and did not join the split in late 1997 which led to the creation of the "Real IRA".
There is concern locally that it was the Provisional IRA testing or training with weapons and that the intention was to advertise the organisation's opposition to any form of decommissioning.
According to a local Garda source the local Provisional republicans are absolutely against decommissioning. A phrase used regularly by local republicans, it is said, is that "not one rusty round" (of ammunition) will be decommissioned.
Gardai report similar levels of strong opposition to decommissioning among Provisionals in their strongholds right along the Border. However, the sources say this internal opposition to decommissioning has not translated into any further splits. The organisation of the Provisional IRA is said to be largely intact although reduced in size since the ceasefires began over five years ago.
Gardai also disagree with the suggestions recently that it would take a further IRA "convention" to allow the organisation to decommission weapons. Intelligence from agents within the IRA indicated that the way to decommissioning was opened at an IRA convention in Gortahork, Co Donegal, in October 1997.
It was at this convention that a group of IRA supporters of the organisation's quartermaster walked out of the meeting and left the organisation. This group subsequently created the group known as the "Real IRA" which went on to carry out the Omagh bombing, the worst single republican outrage of the 20th century.
At the Gortahork convention the decision on what to do with the IRA arsenal was left in the hands of the "Army Council", the group of seven in charge of the organisation. At the time the council included a number of Sinn Fein figures loyal to the Adams-McGuinness leadership.
It also included two figures from the IRA in Belfast and south Armagh who had previously been regarded as very hardline republicans but who also opted to support the Sinn Fein leadership.
While the hardline IRA figures appear to broadly support the policies of their political associates, it now appears they have firmly drawn the line at decommissioning weapons.
This position was underlined when the organisation's new quartermaster, a Co Cavan man, was found by the Garda to have organised the importation of a significant number of guns into the State from the US. The Federal Bureau of Investigation discovered this smuggling operation at the start of last summer.
The weapons from the US are understood to have included new automatic weapons. There was also ammunition for the .5 sniper rifle, of the type used to such effect by the IRA against the British army and the RUC in the Border area during the 1990s.
These weapons were sent to a number of addresses in this State. Senior Garda sources admit there is no accurate account of how many weapons reached the State but it could be as high as 200 guns, including small-calibre pistols of a type used only for close-range assassination; powerful handguns and sub-machineguns.
The weapons were traced to a number of addresses and then to a central collecting point on the Cavan-Meath border from which they disappeared. The Garda is aware of the identities of almost all the people involved and all are known to be loyal Provisional IRA figures.
According to Garda sources in the Border area the local IRA leadership had informed its members that the new weapons would replace old guns which had been lying in arms dumps since the ceasefire process began. This led to speculation that the IRA might be considering disposal of some of its old guns.
It is believed to have up to 1,000 assault rifles in its armoury, mostly ageing but in perfect working order.
However, even the prospect of the destruction of some of this old armoury appears now to have slipped.
Recent pronouncements by republican figures and strong criticism of the UUP leadership's position on suspending the Assembly suggest there is certainly no chance of decommissioning within the time-frame set by Mr Trimble.