FF and FG to maintain stronghold

"I've been working towards this election for the past 14 years," says first-time general election candidate Niall Collins, nephew…

"I've been working towards this election for the past 14 years," says first-time general election candidate Niall Collins, nephew of former Fianna Fáil minister Gerry Collins, nephew of incumbent Fianna Fáil TD in Limerick West Michael Collins and grandson of Jimmy Collins, the first of a family dynasty to hold this seat back in 1948.

I say: "You mean 14 months?" but I'm quickly corrected. "No, 14 years as director of elections for Gerry and Michael and a local election candidate in 2004. You have to earn your credibility through hard graft to be selected in Limerick West. We're not into the parachute business here."

Collins, a 34-year-old accountant from Patrickswell, may be the new kid on the block but he means business. He's been canvassing full-time since January last year. His face has beamed from hundreds of lampposts weeks before the election was called. He marked St Patrick's Day by running floats in the local parades and he was one of the first politicians in the country to put a video-clip on YouTube.

The legendary "Collins machine" is out in force to put its man in the Dáil.

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When I ask him how many party members are working on his team, he pauses before answering: "One hundred, on both sides of the family."

Down at the southeastern end of this rural constituency, at the foot of the Ballyhouras, Labour candidate James Heffernan offers me tea and brown bread in the family kitchen in Kilfinnane.

This is the other side of politics, where the organisation is skeletal and the odds are long. Shop windows carry posters of the 27-year-old local boy but they also display an advertisement for a meeting setting up a local Labour Party branch just the week before.

Heffernan was on a gap year in Australia less than two months ago when Labour HQ rang to ask him to stand. In a constituency that hasn't had a Labour candidate in a decade, he hasn't much time to make an impact.

Last time out, Limerick West started as one of the dullest and most predictable elections in the State and ended in a cliffhanger for the last seat.

The party outcome - two seats for Fianna Fáil and one for Fine Gael - was thoroughly expected but Dan Neville's joust with Fine Gael colleague Michael Finucane produced a one-vote win for Neville for the third seat.

This time, few are predicting an upset, and even a marathon count looks unlikely. Fianna Fáil is expected to take two seats while Neville is likely to see off his party rival by a comfortable margin; he may even top the poll. Not even the presence of PD candidate Michael Brennan or Heffernan is expected to break the stranglehold of the major parties.

For many observers, the main question is whether Niall Collins can get elected ahead of the sitting Fianna Fáil TD John Cregan, who headed the poll in the 2002 election.

For Fine Gael, Neville enjoys a national profile thanks to his efforts to highlight the issue of suicide and sources say this has done him "no harm" back at home.

Finucane, a former front bench spokesman, concedes that Neville will poll higher but says he believes the third seat is between him and Collins.

On the face of it, this seems like a traditional rural constituency but closer examination shows that increasing numbers are commuting to work in Limerick and even Tralee.

No single local issue has pushed its way to the front just yet but what debate there has been has focused on issues of infrastructure, especially roads, sewerage and broadband.

The rise in house prices has pushed many young couples seeking affordable homes away from Limerick city and into towns further west, but the lack of proper sewerage schemes has restricted growth.

There is also pressure for the construction of bypasses to ease traffic problems in the main towns, and some annoyance that the area isn't further up the list for new roads.

Michael Collins resigned the Fianna Fáil whip as far back as 2003 after his name appeared on a list of tax defaulters and he is due to stand trial later this year. His nephew Niall declines to comment on the case while it's before the courts.

Sinn Féin has elected not to run a candidate, thereby avoiding any uncomfortable rekindling of memories of the murder of Garda Jerry McCabe by members of the Provisional IRA in Adare in 1996.

Verdict - FF - 2 FG - 1
No change