"WE will be sanctified if we get the three seats, but they will probably take the credit up in Dub" says Frank Conway, a Fianna Fail activist in Ennis. Only in Clare could the party hope to win three seats in a four seater constituency, and there was a time when it did.
But in the days when Dr Bill Loughnane, Sylvie Barrett and Brendan Daly represented the county it was almost a straight fight between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Nowadays, the presence of strong candidates from Labour and the Progressive Democrats make the mathematics of winning three out of four much more complicated.
Another factor which will make Fianna Fail's task trickier this time is that East Clare has been left open to the PD candidate, Ms Mary Mannion, and that is why, on the very first day of his national campaign, Bertie Ahern travelled through the eastern section of the county on his way to Ennis where he took the route traditionally taken by the party's founder, Eamon de Valera.
In the old days, Dev was led into the town by a man riding a white horse and thousands came out on to the streets. The welcome for Bertie was more subdued (the FA Cup final was on TV at the time), but it was a warm one all the same.
The de Valera name still carries great weight and Ennisbased Site de Vatera is the only one of the three Fianna Fail candidates who appears sure of retaining her seat. On the other hand, there is a tremendous battle in prospect between former minister, Brendan Daly, and incumbent TD, Tony Killeen, with strong intimations from inside the FF camp that Mr Daly is fighting back very hard this time.
The big surprise last time out, not only in Clare but nationally, was the performance of Labour's Dr Moosajee Bhamjee who took votes from all over the county to gain 5,152 first preferences. Dr Bhamjee is standing down and an expected nationwide fall in the Labour vote could also adversely affect the party's chances in Clare.
The arrival on the Labour ticket of the former national president of the Irish Countrywomen's Association, Bridin Twist, has, however, given Labour real hope of retaining its seat. A formidable candidate, she has been conducting a highly professional campaign, but has been bedevilled by unproven allegations which she emphatically denies, that she passed a picket line during the Dunne's Stores strike in Ennis in 1995. Almost all parties have been trying to push Ben Dunne into the background in this campaign, but in Clare at least it seems that he won't go away.
Fine Gael has the benefit of a team of two candidates which is geographically well balanced with Donal Carey expected to be as strong as ever in the heartland of his support in Ennis and Clarecastle; Madeleine Taylor Quinn, who lost her seat last time, has her support concentrated mainly in the north of the county especially around Ballyvaughan.
With tight proGovernment transfers expected, any slippage from Labour in terms of first preferences is expected to benefit Fine Gael and Ms Taylor Quinn, who could then join Mr Carey in Dail Eireann once again.
This, however, is by no means certain. Mary Mannion of the PDs got 3,112 first preferences in 1992 when she was a political neophyte. Since then, she has built up a strong reputation as a good constituency worker and has developed an efficient organisation on the ground. These factors, allied to her position as the sole East Clare candidate, will make her a strong challenger.
There is, as well, always the possibility of Fianna Fail taking the third seat and the fierce competition between Brendan Daly and Tony Killeen is likely at least to help get the party's vote out in strength.
Dr Rita O'Connor, a public health doctor, is running for the National Party in the constituency.
National issues such as the fight against crime are likely to dominate the campaign. Clare has its own drugs problem which, though less virulent than in counties with larger urban centres, causes great concern among parents. Locally, there are issues which are considered important only in specific areas: a campaign to stop the boundary of Limerick city expanding into southeast Clare, agitation against a proposed incinerator in Clarecastle and opposition to the Loran C mast at Loop Head in the far west.
