Fianna Fβil ministers have decided in principle to hold the promised referendum on abortion on February 28th, according to reliable sources.
The Tβnaiste, Ms Harney, had resisted setting a date on the basis that it would be unwise to put the referendum to the people unless broad middle-ground support existed for it. But senior Progressive Democrats say they will not bring down the Government on the issue, if the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, is determined to go ahead.
The Taoiseach agreed to discuss the timing of the referendum with the Progressive Democrats after the Christmas recess. But he has resolved to hold the referendum before the general election and is said to have already nominated a date of February 28th to senior Fianna Fβil ministers.
The referendum legislation, which seeks to exclude the Supreme Court judgment in the X case as grounds for a termination of pregnancy, passed through the Oireachtas in mid-December.
A formal decision by the Cabinet in favour of the February referendum date is expected to be taken on January 15th, when ministers return from their Christmas holidays.
A week later, on January 23rd, the Fine Gael parliamentary party will consider the issue when it will be asked by the party leader, Mr Michael Noonan, to oppose the referendum.
The Fine Gael decision will be taken a week before the Dβil resumes and Mr Noonan will recommend opposition on the grounds that the changes proposed to the Constitution are too sweeping and that it is impossible to know what a future Supreme Court would rule on the matter. Strong, opposing views exist within Fine Gael on the issue. Mr Noonan has said he will not be insisting that all TDs and senators should canvass actively against the referendum proposals.
If Fine Gael decides to campaign against the referendum, it will join with the Labour Party, the Green Party and Sinn FΘin in resisting the Government's intentions.
The Catholic bishops have already come out strongly in support of the referendum, on the grounds that it would be "a significant improvement on the current unsatisfactory situation".
It would, they said, roll back the Supreme Court judgment in the X case, which accepted the risk of the mother's suicide as legitimate grounds for abortion .
The measure is supported by the Pro-Life Campaign, but it has been opposed by the Mother and Child group (formerly known as Youth Defence).
The Taoiseach has pushed hard within Cabinet for the holding of a referendum, arguing that some finality must be brought to the matter after almost five years of discussion.
A referendum would, he said, provide legal certainty following the X case and he appealed for a calm public debate.
In spite of the Taoiseach's determination, there is some concern among Fianna Fβil ministers that the party's general election prospects would be seriously damaged should the referendum be defeated.
But there is also an acceptance that, because of the Taoiseach's determination, it will go ahead as planned.
The divisions are deeper within the Progressive Democrats, where some members of the parliamentary party are adamantly opposed to the measure.
Having supported the Bill in the Dβil, however, Ms Harney is seen to have little option but to allow the referendum to go ahead.
Her declared reservations and the party's anxiety that there should be broad middle-ground support for the measure is regarded in Fianna Fβil as a form of political insurance in case the referendum fails.