CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:FOR OVER a quarter of a century Cork East proved an example of Fianna Fáil solidity, with intense rivalry between running mates Ned O'Keeffe and Michael Ahern ensuring both were comfortably returned to Dáil Éireann, election after election.
After seven outings together the partnership has been broken, with O’Keeffe stepping down in favour of his son Kevin, a member of Cork County Council, with a gloomy outlook following from his own opinion poll that Fianna Fáil would lose both seats.
Whatever happens, most commentators agree that Cork East – including towns such as Mallow, Mitchelstown and Fermoy in the north, and Cobh, Midleton and Youghal in the south – will continue with its pattern of returning two TDs in the north and two in the south.
Most commentators also agree that within these parameters, Labour’s Seán Sherlock, based in Mallow, will take one of the northern seats, possibly topping the poll and being elected on the first count with a surplus – a feat which eluded his late father, Joe.
The second seat is most likely to go to sitting Fine Gael deputy David Stanton from near Midleton, who won seats in 2002 and 2007, despite being outpolled on both first counts by running mate Paul Bradford.
Bradford, who failed to take a seat despite winning almost 9,000 first preferences in 2007, isn’t running this time, and Fine Gael is running two newly elected county councillors instead, Tom Barry from Killavullen and Patrick O’Driscoll from Rathcormac.
Barry won a seat in the Mallow electoral area with 1,666 votes in 2009, while O’Driscoll won a seat in the Fermoy electoral area with 2,559, and although Barry will poll well among the farming community, O’Driscoll is more centrally located and will poll well in Fermoy town.
With polls showing Fianna Fáil running at 15 per cent in Munster, O’Keeffe and Ahern will struggle to hold one seat, with O’Keeffe facing a major challenge to stay ahead of Barry and O’Driscoll in the northern end of the constituency.
Ahern will face a stiff challenge in the southern end from a reinvigorated Cllr John Mulvihill from Cobh, who won a seat for Labour in Cork East in 1992, and from Sinn Féin’s Cllr Sandra McLellan from Youghal, who will improve her 2007 tally of 2,467.
While Fine Gael is guaranteed a second seat through either Barry or O’Driscoll, the destination of the last seat is intriguing, with Fianna Fáil in danger of splitting the vote too evenly so that O’Keeffe and Ahern could find themselves trailing Mulvihill and McLellan.
The fight for the last seat may well be between Ahern and McLellan. While it would once have been inconceivable to think of Fianna Fáil having no TD in Cork East, don’t rule out a surprise with McLellan making it to Dáil Éireann.
CORK EAST: 4 SEATS
OUTGOING TDs:
Ned O'Keeffe (FF), Michael Ahern (FF) David Stanton (FG) Sean Sherlock (Lab)
CANDIDATES:
Michael Ahern (FF), Kevin O'Keeffe (FF), Tom Barry (FG), Patrick O'Driscoll (FG), David Stanton (FG), John Mulvihill (Lab), Sean Sherlock (Lab), Sandra McLellan (SF), Malachy Harty (Green), Claire Cullinane (People's Convention), Patrick Bulman (People's Convention), Paul O'Neill (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES:
The proposed incinerator at Ringaskiddy on the southern side of Cork Harbour along with the long-awaited clean-up of the former Irish Steel Plant in Haulbowline may prove strong issues around Cobh, but all over the constituency, unemployment and job creation are the
priority. Youghal saw its last major industry go last year, while Mallow and Mitchelstown have both suffered huge job losses with closures in the agri-food industry. There have also been factory closures in Fermoy and Midleton. Last month, according to the CSO, there were 12,185 people in the constituency signing on the Live Register.
VERDICT:FG 2, Lab 1, SF 1
