CALLING Cairo. .. The Egyptian agriculture minister may not realise it, but on his shoulders hangs a government party seat in the Laois Offaly constituency next month. Should the live cattle trade be restored by June 6th, Fine Gael will be as happy as a pig or should that be bullock in animal waste matter.
That and the "Oliver J factor" will play a part in the voting pattern in the Slieve Bloom counties, where Fianna Fail is reputed to have one of the best election machines in the country and where there are a lot of "maybes" about the fourth and fifth seats.
The spectre of the Fine Gael deputy on the bicycle, who didn't even falter when his false teeth fell out during delivery of a Dail speech and who was a master at claiming credit even where it wasn't due, still haunts the boglands. As a character, he hasn't been replaced.
The Progressive Democrats have even taken a leaf out of his book, or spoke out of his rothar. His inimitable cycling "vest", reading "Here comes Oliver" on his chest and "There goes Flanagan" on his back, has been borrowed. Senator Cathy Honan's car carries a similar message.
Fianna Fail had three seats in this sprawling constituency, until Ger Connolly, one of the longest serving deputies, announced his retirement and Liam Hyland decided to concentrate on his seat in the European Parliament. Brian Cowen, the constituency's former cabinet minister, is expected to top the poll. Offaly is his bailiwick. Most parties assume that the old antipathy between them still prevails, which is why two candidates are an advantage.
The problems for Fianna Fail is new blood and party discipline. Some Fianna Fail voters have been known to vote No 1 for the Tullamore man, Cowen, and nobody else. The party wants all the transfers it can get to ensure that at least two of the three running mates probably John Maloney, a councillor, and possibly Sean Fleming can be returned. Sean Fleming is expected to get a strong republican vote in the area, as Sinn Fein has no candidate. The fourth, young Ger Killally, is regarded as the most vulnerable.
Fianna Fail's vote was 55 per cent three elections ago, but it was 51 per cent in 1992. Internal surveys have indicated that it is still slipping, which could give Fine Gael a fighting chance of regaining a seat for the Birr solicitor, Senator Tom Enright. Enright has been prominent on issues like drinkdriving laws and crime.
Last time round, Charlie Flanagan, son of Oliver J, secured 1.4 quotas to win one seat. If the party vote rises marginally, Enright will be returned, but it needs to increase by about 5 per cent on 1992, according to the Fine Gael director of elections, David Brickley.
Depending on who one talks to, the big battle will be between Labour's Pat Gallagher and the PDs' Cathy Honan, or between En right and Gallagher. Labour always had a vote in Laois, until Har Byrne of Stradbally lost his seal in 1969. Pal Gallagher of Tullamore bucked that trend for the party in 1992, and is perceived to be one of the hardworking deputies in the constituency. Local schools have benefitted by extensions, and special education classes have risen by 340 per cent.
Senator Cathy Honan's national profile is considered to be better than her local one. The Portarlington accountant is the only female candidate, and is not too radical for a conservative constituency.
She cannot count on transfers from Fianna Fail, partly due to the larger party's determination to secure three seats and partly due to the Cowen factor. He once described members of her Progressive Democrats party as "politically promiscuous opportunists" and is also credited with another ardfheis remark in that direction "If in doubt, leave out" - when Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats were in government.
There is no consensus on issues. The Progressive Democrats don't rate any one issue in particular, whereas Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will refer to employment, cattle prices and crime. None of the three believes Bord na Mona is a factor, whereas Labour does, given the scale of rationalisation since 1982. The new £125 million peat fired power station funded by the EU will be built in Offaly, rather than Kildare, most believe. Planning permission is expected to be applied for next year.
The National Party is running Peter McNamee, a former Fianna Fail national executive member and farmer in Rhode, Co Offaly, who is disenchanted with the Soldiers of Destiny, particularly over divorce. He is calling for a referendum on abortion, among other issues, and is targeting what some estimate to be a 25 per cent floating vote in the constituency.
