CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: CORK NORTH WEST:IN 2007 Cork North West was dubbed the "group of death" when four sitting TDs and one former TD went head to head for three seats. It may not be quite as desperate a contest this time but it remains an intriguing constituency with potential for an upset.
Since the last election the constituency has lost territory and voters on its eastern flank in places such as Glantane, Bweeng and Dromahane but has retained all its main towns, including Charleville, Kanturk, Newmarket and Millstreet in the north and Macroom and Ballincollig in the south.
Aside from boundary changes, the other notable change since 2007 is the decision by former minister Batt O’Keeffe not to seek re-election, which led Fianna Fáil to add Ballincollig-based solicitor Daithí Ó Donnabháin to the ticket to shore up its southern flank.
The elongated nature of the constituency, allied to the fact that more people live south of the Boggeragh mountains, which provide a natural divide between north and south, has usually resulted in two candidates being elected in the south and one in the north.
In 2007 Fianna Fáil won two seats via Ballincollig-based O’Keeffe and outgoing TD Michael Moynihan from Kiskeam in the north.
Outgoing Fine Gael TD Michael Creed from Macroom regained the seat he lost to running mate Gerard Murphy in 2002.
Fine Gael has usually run two candidates – one north and one south – but on this occasion it is providing Creed with two running mates, accountant Áine Collins, who lives near Millstreet, and Cllr Derry Canty, who is based in Ballincollig.
Conspiracy theorists may interpret it as a rebuke by Fine Gael headquarters for Creed’s support for the heave against leader Enda Kenny.
In any event, it seems a strange move, given that Fine Gael can hope only to take two seats and has done so regularly in the past with just two candidates.
While Creed loyalists will argue that the selection of Canty, who polled 4,000 votes in the 2009 local elections, will put a dent in their man’s chances, it would be a seismic shock if Creed were not to take the first seat and possibly with a decent surplus.
Moynihan, even allowing for the drop in Fianna Fáil’s vote, should still be safe as Cork North West is a conservative constituency and even if the party’s 2007 vote was to halve to about 26 per cent, he should be safe with transfers from first-time running mate Ó Donnabháin.
Labour is running sitting county councillor Martin Coughlan from Macroom, who polled 2,288 or 4.91 per cent in the last general election and, although he increased it to almost 3,000 in the 2009 local elections, he would need to get his vote up to about 12 per cent to have a chance of winning a seat.
He would also have to pick up some of Creed’s surplus and get a good transfer from Anne Foley of United Left Alliance, Mark Collins of the Green Party and Sinn Féin’s Des O’Grady, who looks set to at least double his 2009 local election vote of 1,318.
The simpler and more likely outcome is that Fine Gael will take two seats, with Canty favoured to take a strong vote in Ballincollig to squeeze out Collins and maintain the 2:1 south/north divide.
CORK NORTH WEST: 3 SEATS
OUTGOING TDS:Michael Creed (FG); Michael Moynihan (FF); Batt O'Keeffe (FF).
DECLARED TO DATE: FF – Michael Moynihan, Daithí Ó Donnabháin; FG – Derry Canty, Áine Collins, Michael Creed; Lab – Martin Coughlan; GP – Mark Collins; SF – Des O'Grady; ULA – Anne Foley
LOCAL ISSUES:Unemployment and emigration have hit the region hard, particularly with the closure of Mallow sugar factory. December live register figures show 3,800 people were signing on at Newmarket and Macroom. Other issues raised include the universal social charge and the state of the roads after two harsh winters.
VERDICT: FG - 2; FF 1
