THE general election result in Dublin Central could yet have a profound effect on the political future of the Fianna Fail leader, Bertie Ahern.
Picture the scenario: Bertie fails to bring in a second seat in Dublin Central and neither the Rainbow nor the FF/PD coalition has an overall majority. Both go seeking support from the Greens and sundry independents. The Greens and a sufficient number of independents decide to support the Rainbow.
Fianna Fail returns to Opposition once more, led by the man who was almost Taoiseach, twice. And who probably could have been Taoiseach at the second chance if only he had managed the vote in his own constituency better and brought in Marian McGennis as well. The knives would be out.
In the 1992 general election Bertie Ahern received 31.25 per cent (11,374 votes) of the first preference vote. His nearest party colleague in the poll was the outgoing TD Dr Dermot Fitzpatrick (1,838 votes), who got just 5.05 per cent of the poll, while Olga Bennett (1,087 votes) received 2.99 per cent.
Overall the party vote in Dublin Central dropped 5.6 per cent to 39.3 per cent. Even Bertie's own vote was down 2,215. Admittedly Fianna Fail was worst affected by a constituency revision and Dublin Central's reduction from five seats to four.
Still, the party had two quotas in the 1992 election to Jim Mitchell's 0.7 of a quota. But he secured the last seat for Fine Gael, on the 12th count, while Fianna Fail got just one.
There is not a lot of evidence on the ground that Fianna Fail in Dublin Central has learned from this experience. Marian McGennis has been allocated that part of the constituency south of the Liffey which she has been canvassing since last January.
The hope in Fianna Fail is that she will get just enough first preferences to hold on until Bertie's transfers come onstream to lift her into the last seat. But she is starting from a low base. Though born in Arbour Hill, she has lived all her married life in Blanchardstown, in the Dublin West constituency, where she has a history of party activism. She is not well known in Dublin Central, and outside the Kilmainham, Inchicore, south of the river areas, the Fianna Fail machine has not done a lot to correct this. It is doing what it always has done in Dublin Central, looking for number ones for Bertie Ahern.
To compound Marian McGennis's difficulties, she is also up against some of the better known names in Irish politics. Independent Tony Gregory is widely predicted, according to internal party polls, to take the second seat, after Bertie Ahern while among those competing for the last two seats against her will be Joe Costello (Labour) and Jim Mitchell (FG).
Joe Costello took 20.08 per cent (7,308) of the vote in 1992. Even allowing for the drop in Labour's popularity nationally it is difficult to see him losing this seat.
On the canvass it is doing Joe Costello no harm to claim responsibility for the introduction of the Criminal Assets Bureau. He has also been closely identified with prisoners' issues and that of republican prisoners in British jails.
Jim Mitchell who initially announced his retirement from politics but then opted to stay on to improve Fine Gael's chances of staying in government can only benefit by the inclusion of lower Ballyfermot this time around. He could also benefit from the 5,090 new electors now living in city apartments since the last election.
A Dublin city councillor, Ciaran Cuffe, is mounting the Green Party challenge. Another candidate expected to increase his vote is Sinn Fein's Christy Burke. He took 3.7 per cent (1,362) of the first preference vote in 1992.
