CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: DUBLIN SOUTH: FOR MONTHS Labour's Senator Alex White has toiled in the often ungrateful vineyard that is Dublin South to fill the vacancy left by the passing of Fianna Fáil's Seamus Brennan.
His early arrival garnered much positive publicity for the senator, first elected in 2007, establishing him as the early front-runner.
Today, however, the benefits of an early start for Mr White are not what they once were as he, like other Dublin South contestants, struggle to cope with the phenomenon that is George Lee.
Dublin South falling Labour’s way was part of a carefully honed strategy to progress the party’s advance to power.
Dublin South covers some districts that benefited most from the Celtic Tiger years, such as parts of Stillorgan, Dundrum, Mount Merrion, Kilmacud, Goatstown, Rathfarnham, and ones that are practically Tiger creations, such as Sandyford. While it does enjoy the Luas, the constituency struggles to cope with the lack of school places and job losses that are part of the Tiger’s hangover.
Before Mr Brennan’s early death last year, Fianna Fáil had two seats in the five-seat constituency. Fine Gael have two in Alan Shatter and Olivia Mitchell, and the Greens one with Eamon Ryan.
Fine Gael is buoyed up after its capture of the former RTÉ economics editor, and he has been warmly greeted while canvassing.
Believing that the byelection will be fought on national issues, Fine Gael has been quick to highlight Lee’s past economic prognostications, while the manner of his departure from RTÉ, and his managers’ state of knowledge about his intentions, seems not to bother his potential electorate much.
Privately, senior Fine Gael figures indicated for several months that they had “a big beast in the bag”. Mr Lee insists he only made up his mind at the last moment.
Fianna Fáil has long had a substantial presence in the constituency, fuelled by often-bitter competition between the late Mr Brennan and TD Tom Kitt.
For now, the so-called Brennan “machine”, or most of it, has thrown its weight behind Mr Brennan’s son, Shay, bar his father’s closest ally, Frank Lahiffe, who has broken publicly with the family. Co-operation with Brennan from other parts of the local organisation is likely to be tepid.
Local Fianna Fáil tensions were visible when they held their local convention, where Brennan jnr triumphed over Senator Maria Corrigan. Privately, seasoned Fianna Fáil people accept Brennan cannot win, or is highly unlikely to do so, but a good show is vital if Dublin South is not to play a role in post-election leadership disturbances, should they occur, in the party.
For now, FF’s realism and Labour’s desire to overcome Mr Lee has led to a declaration of neutrality between the parties.
So far, Brennan and White – who will need each other’s second preferences if they are to be in at the end – have been careful to avoid attacking each other.
Fine Gael’s success in acquiring Lee was a master-stroke, and it has struck a nerve with voters – but, equally, it must work. Still early in the campaign, White has chosen to attack Lee’s leader, Enda Kenny, and his fitness for office, rather than the candidate.
Lee’s tetchiness, visible on TV3’s Nightly News with Vincent Browne and RTÉ’s News at One interview with Sean O’Rourke, has left his opponents hoping there are weaknesses that can be exploited, though they acknowledge that it is an uphill battle.
The Green Party is running Elizabeth Davidson, who has run once already unsuccessfully for the Dáil and once in the 2004 locals. Sinn Féin is running Shaun Tracy, a Leinster House-based press officer for the party.
A first-timer, Independent Ross O’Mullane is also running.
