CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:IT IS a measure of how political realities have changed that, just four years after it won two seats in Waterford with three candidates getting 46.5 per cent of the vote, Fianna Fáil is fielding only one candidate and desperately hoping to hold a single seat.
Last time out, Fianna Fáil minister and former PD Martin Cullen polled a whopping 11,438 votes to take the first seat, with then former TD Brendan Kenneally coming from behind on first preferences to unseat running mate Ollie Wilkinson, who had won the seat from him in 2002.
With Cullen retiring due to ill health and Fianna Fáil plummeting in the polls, the party has opted to run Kenneally, a third-generation TD from Dunmore Road in the city, on his own.
The other notable feature of this election is the retirement of Labour stalwart Brian O’Shea, who has held a seat here since 1989. In a bid to ensure a Labour TD, the party has opted to run two candidates, councillor Séamus Ryan from the city and councillor Ciara Conway from Dungarvan.
Last time out, Fine Gael ran three candidates, polled 27.4 per cent but took only one seat, with Dungarvan-based deputy John Deasy polling 7,554 votes and running mate Paudie Coffey, from Portlaw, polling 4,658 first preferences, but losing the final seat to O’Shea.
This time, Fine Gael has wisely opted for Deasy and Coffey on a two-man ticket and most pundits agree both men are on course to take seats. Deasy, running in the less congested western end of the constituency, is widely expected to top the poll.
Kenneally will be in contention for Fianna Fáil, as will Ryan for Labour, who looks the stronger of the party’s two candidates. Councillor David Cullinane of Sinn Féin and Independent councillor John Halligan, formerly of the Workers’ Party, will also be vying for a seat.
Kenneally must be fancied to take a seat, even allowing for a halving or more of Fianna Fáil’s first-preference vote.
If this happens, the last seat is between Ryan, Cullinane and Halligan. All three are from the Waterford city south ward, where Halligan topped the poll in the 2009 local elections with 1,430 votes, Ryan took the second seat with 989 votes and Cullinane won the last seat with 590 votes.
Although O’Shea had built up a strong personal vote, Labour is positioned to poll well despite his retirement.
The sequence of elimination will determine the winner of the last seat, with all three men vying to stay ahead of each other to benefit from transfers.
It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Waterford might return two left-wing TDs, but it would require a meltdown of the Fianna Fáil vote for Kenneally to lose out and a two-man combination from Ryan, Cullinane and Halligan to be returned.
