Fine Gael is facing a dilemma when the Dail resumes at the end of January. Should the party move the writ for the Tipperary South by-election, with the risk of defeat, or wait until the general election, when it is virtually certain of taking one of the three seats in the constituency?
The by-election is due because of the death of the Fine Gael TD, Theresa Ahearn, last September. Last June voters in the constituency elected the Independent candidate, Seamus Healy, in a by-election caused by the death of the Labour TD, Michael Ferris. The third TD in the constituency is the Fianna Fail Minister of State for Agriculture, Noel Davern.
On paper, Fine Gael should be the favourite. It has a strong candidate in Senator Tom Hayes, from Golden, who polled well in the June by-election and helped save John Bruton's leadership at a time when it was under threat.
However, in a by-election Mr Hayes would face strong opposition from Clonmel-based Phil Prendergast, who has been chosen as the candidate for Mr Healy's Workers and Unemployed Action Group. She is a member of Tipperary South Riding County Council and Clonmel Corporation and works as a midwife in the local St Joseph's Hospital.
Mr Healy had a spectacular victory in the last by-election, heading the poll with 9,419 votes, ahead of Mr Hayes who had 8,184 votes. Should Ms Prendergast, who is a strong candidate in her own right, secure a considerable portion of Mr Healy's vote, it would put Mr Hayes under pressure. In a general election there would be just one seat for Mr Healy's organisation, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fail taking the other two.
Sections of the local Fine Gael organisation believe the seat should be left vacant until the general election is called. They point out that, apart from the risk of defeat, Mr Hayes's Seanad seat would be lost in the subsequent by-election if he was elected to the Dail. This would leave the party with what it currently has: one Oireachtas member in Tipperary South.
Mr Bruton seemed to indicate in an RTE interview on Sunday that he would be prepared to wait for a general election rather than move the writ for the by-election. "My focus now is on the general election, seeing when and where we will place our candidates for a general election in all of the constituencies in the country," he said.
However, the party leader is likely to come under pressure to move the by-election writ in the spring. A failure to do so would leave him and the party open to the charge that they were afraid to face Tipperary South voters, who are without full Dail representation.
Mr Bruton will be conscious that a Fine Gael defeat would, yet again, create rumblings about his leadership, despite his convincing defeat of a challenge from the Waterford TD, Austin Deasy, last November.
Labour has chosen as its candidate its sole county councillor in the constituency, Mr Denis Landy, from Carrick-on-Suir. The party will be anxious to see the by-election go ahead to ensure plenty of exposure for Mr Landy in advance of the general election.
Tipperary South was once a Labour stronghold. Sean Treacy held a seat there before breaking with the party, and Mr Ferris did well to retain his seat in the 1997 election. However, Mr Ferris's widow, Ellen, was never in contention for a seat in the last by-election count, and the party's 16.7 per cent of the vote was only marginally up on the general election.
If the by-election goes ahead, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will be seeking a much improved Fianna Fail performance, following the collapse of its vote the last time. Its candidate, Mr Barry O'Brien, a Clogheen-based county councillor, came third in first preferences, as the party's vote slumped by 14.5 per cent. The result sent shock waves through the Fianna Fail parliamentary party, with Mr Ahern describing the result as "particularly disappointing".
The candidate chosen this time is Mr Michael Maguire, a Lattin East-based county councillor, who was Mr Davern's running-mate in the last general election. He was first elected to Tipperary South Riding Council in 1985, helping to secure a Fianna Fail majority on the council after 30 years.