Senator Tom Hayes of Fine Gael will see off a strong challenge from Independent councillor Ms Phil Prendergast to win the Tipperary South by-election this weekend, according to an MRBI opinion poll published last night.
Fianna Fail faces another heavy defeat in south Tipperary with its candidate, Mr Michael Maguire, coming in third and failing to reverse the collapse in the party's vote in the constituency a year ago.
The news is no less alarming for the Labour Party, whose candidate, Mr Denis Landy, is making no inroads into the support of the Workers' and Unemployed Action Group, which is set to consolidate its position as the dominant left-wing force in the constituency.
Its candidate, Ms Prendergast, will come close to matching the performance of her colleague, Mr Seamus Healy, who won last year's by-election, if the poll's findings are borne out when counting takes place on Sunday.
Conducted by MRBI for last night's Nuacht on TG4, the poll gives Mr Hayes a 33 per cent share of the first preference vote, after "don't knows" are excluded, up from 27 per cent last year when he came within 500 votes of taking the seat.
Ms Prendergast is on 28 per cent, a drop of almost 3 per cent on Mr Healy's support last year, but still a dramatic increase on the 16 per cent support for the WUAG in the 1997 general election. Mr Maguire is on 23 per cent, the same as his party colleague, Mr Barry O'Brien, received in last year's by-election, and a drop from 37 per cent support for Fianna Fail in 1997.
Mr Landy's support, at 16 per cent, is marginally down on the vote secured by Mrs Ellen Ferris for Labour last year. It matches, however, the support received by Mrs Ferris's late husband, Michael, in 1997 when he held his seat.
Taking account of voters' second preference intentions, the poll suggests that Mr Hayes will marginally increase his lead over Ms Prendergast following the elimination of Mr Landy. Mr Hayes is poised to receive 38 per cent of Mr Landy's second preferences, compared to 31 per cent for Ms Prendergast, the poll indicates.
The gap would widen further after Mr Maguire's elimination, with 52 per cent of the Fianna Fail man's second preferences set to go to Mr Hayes and just 19 per cent to Ms Prendergast, resulting in Mr Hayes's election. The unusually high transfer of Fianna Fail support to Fine Gael is probably explained by the fact Mr Hayes and Mr Maguire are from the same rural area of west Tipperary, whereas Ms Prendergast is based in Clonmel.
The opinion poll was conducted among a quota sample of 400 electors in the constituency between June 19th and June 24th. Most of the interviews were conducted between June 20th and June 22nd - more than a week from polling day.
