THE findings of this election day survey confirm my main conclusion from the three Irish Times/MRBI opinion polls conducted during May, that the next government will indeed be led by Fianna Fail. However, the coalition majority with the Progressive Democrats as partners, if it materialises, will be quite marginal.
Support for Fianna Fail has consolidated over the final week of the campaign, while Fine Gael also had a slight upturn. This will not influence the outcome since Labour would appear to have lost support during the same period. Democratic Left has held its ground in the Dublin battlefield, where the PDs could be under pressure from the Greens.
With almost 170 independent candidates in contention, it is not surprising that their first preference impact is as high as 11 per cent - in the last two general elections the corresponding figures were 9 per cent and 8 per cent.
Except for the impact of the Green Party, the situation is strikingly similar to the 1989 election.
In interpreting the party support figures, and particularly for those who wish to look towards the composition of the new Dail, a number of relevant factors should be taken into account. The first is that while the survey measured voting behaviour among those who had voted, and first-preference intentions among those intending to, the relationship between first-preference votes and seats is quite inconsistent for all parties. Table A illustrates the point over the past three elections. However, by making certain assumptions based on these historical patterns, it is possible to estimate the maximum number of seats that each party may win.
The second point is there also appears to be a relationship between the number of candidates nominated, and the numbers elected on first counts i.e. the greater the numbers nominated, the fewer the number of candidates likely to be elected on the first count (Table B). In this election, with 486 candidates nominated, the highest in the history of the 166-seat Dail, it would appear that relatively fewer seats than previously will be filled on the first count, and that a heavy volume, more than two-thirds will await the later counts.
A further characteristic of opinion polling, and particularly of campaign polling, is that support for the "others" category is invariably understated due to averaging of support across all 41 constituencies. Because of this, the support figures for the combined six main parties in the final campaign opinion polls in the last three elections overstated support by 4 per cent, 2 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. On this occasion with 12 parties and 170 independents contesting the election, it is very likely that the combined figure for the top six parties may be similarly overstated.
The provisions of the 1992 Electoral Act are such that it is illegal to remain within 100 metres of a polling station during an election and in November 1995 a referendum day survey very reliably indicated the cliff-hanger result of the divorce referendum. In that instance the result options were limited to a "Yes" or "No". Today's election survey, with not only two coalition government options, but seven other parties and independents, is less straightforward.
Total absence of canvassers spoiled the entertainment
By DICK GROGAN
WATERFORD
PARTY workers in Waterford were spurred into a hasty readjustment of their postering efforts yesterday after the constituency returning officer, Mr Niall Rooney, made it clear that he intended to rigorously enforce the "hundred metre" rule.
Soon after voting began, Mr Rooney warned on local radio that he would act on possible breaches of the Electoral Act, which prohibits canvassing, posters, the wearing of rosettes or the use of loud-hailers within 100 metres of polling stations.
"Unfortunately, I've had some reports of breaches in this area, and I've asked the gardai to take note of the time, place and the persons responsible", Mr Rooney said. "I will be taking action about that afterwards. I will have very little choice in the matter, because the candidates all have been warned in writing, and orally, of the provision."
Vans converged on a number of polling stations to remove all electoral material which might be considered to marginally intrude upon the exclusion zone.
Touring the stations, a Fine Gael candidate, Maurice Cummins, prudently removed his name stickers from his car after a few words with Mr Rooney.
There wasn't a canvasser in sight near the gates of the polling stations all day. This may have been politically correct, but it certainly dampened the entertainment factor of polling day. "The badinage is gone", remarked one very literate presiding officer.
As if Mr Rooney's eagle eye was not enough, the torrential afternoon rain ravaged the legally-placed placards throughout the city and county. On the Dunmore road, a half-dozen posters of the PD hopeful, Katharine Bulbulia, slid down their poles to sag limply at ground level.
The voting was slow but steady, with over 40 per cent recorded at a number of city stations by 6 p.m. But none of the 13 candidates for the four seats could offer a glimmer of insight into the trends. "Nobody has a clue", said Dermot Kirwan, a TV deflector candidate.
The pigeonholes were stacked for the count in the Butler Community Centre on the outskirts of Waterford. The nearest "watering hole", Brady's pub, 50 yards away, made its usual preparations for the onslaught, promising freshly-made scones in the morning and soup and sandwiches until all hours.
In a concession to the technological age, the pub also announced facilities "for any of the parties to plug in their computers.