Fianna Fail is likely to lose the seat held by Mr Michael O'Kennedy TD, who is due to retire, to Labour in the three seater Tipperary North constituency, according to a TG4/MRBI poll whose results were released last night.
In a tight competition between the three main party candidates for the seat, the poll of 400 people shows that Labour candidate Senator Kathleen O'Meara will be elected, gaining heavily from transfers from Independent TD Mr Michael Lowry after he again tops the poll, with 32 per cent of the first preference vote.
The Minister for Defence, Mr Smith, would also be re-elected with a nine percentage point increase in first preference votes, from 18 per cent to 27 per cent.
Contesting the third seat with Ms O'Meara will be Cllr Maire Hoctor of Fianna Fail and Cllr Noel Coonan of Fine Gael.
"The critical issue is the likely positioning of the three candidates after the election of Lowry and Smith and eliminations. The figures indicate that Kathleen O'Meara is the most favourably positioned, with Maire Hoctor also well in contention," MRBI states.
However, it points out that the poll was taken in the first week of February, before Mr Michael Noonan, in the neighbouring constituency of Limerick East, became leader of Fine Gael. This "may influence the situation and the period between now and the actual election holds the key".
Mr Coonan's share of first preference votes, at 15 per cent, is ahead of Ms O'Meara's, at 13 per cent, but he will not gain transfers from Mr Lowry, a former member of Fine Gael, in sufficient numbers.
Mr Smith's surplus will go to Ms Hoctor, the second selected Fianna Fail candidate.
The results from the mock ballot paper show that Ms Margaret Carey of the National Party registered 2 per cent of first preferences, excluding undecideds.
Mr Lowry, who topped the poll with 11,638 first preference votes in the 1997 general election, will increase his first preference vote from 29 to 32 per cent. This is drawn almost evenly from all social classes of upper and lower income groups and farmers, and is strong across all age groups. His strongest showing, of 43 per cent, is among the 25-34 age bracket.
In the southern half of the constituency - the Thurles/ Templemore area, close to his home at Holycross - his support peaks at 50 per cent. At the northern end, in the Nenagh/ Roscrea area, support falls to as low as 15 per cent.
Mr Smith's support also has a strong localised factor. Living outside Roscrea, he draws 31 per cent of the first preferences from the Roscrea/Nenagh area. This falls to 22 per cent in the Thurles/Templemore area. He gets 33 per cent from those over 65, and 29 per cent from the 35-49 and 50-64 age groups.
Ms O'Meara gains three percentage points in her first preference vote, from 10 to 13 per cent. Her highest level of support is from the 18-24 age group, at 17 per cent, and also has a strong urban vote, at 16. In contrast, just 2 per cent of the farming community give her a first preference vote.
Ms Hoctor has a strong return in her home town of Nenagh of 20 per cent but only gets 2 per cent from the Thurles/Temple more area. Mr Coonan gets 20 per cent of the vote from those aged 65, with equal support between the Nenagh/Ros crea and Thurles/Templemore areas.