ELECTORAL STRATEGY: Even if they all won, the party does not have enough candidates to secure a Dáil majority
FOR THE first time since its foundation in 1926, Fianna Fáil is not fielding enough candidates to win an overall majority.
As of last night, 74 candidates had been selected though there is a possibility that candidates will be added in a small number of constituencies, specifically Donegal North East and Dublin South. Even if every one of the candidates was elected (a virtual impossibility), it would still leave Fianna Fáil seven TDs short of the 83 needed to take Dáil control.
Fianna Fáil is fielding a third fewer candidates than it did in 2002 or 2007; in both those elections 106 people stood.
Fine Gael and Labour, by contrast, have both substantially increased their candidates. Fine Gael is fielding 102, compared with 90 in 2007. Labour is fielding 68; in 2007 it had 50. The only party capable of forming a unitary government, either majority or minority, is Fine Gael.
Fianna Fáil strategists said yesterday it had whittled down the candidate list as much as possible to maximise its chances of retaining seats.
One senior backroom person said the party has been following a “less is more” strategy since the 1997 election and the strategy for this election was consistent with it.
Fourteen years ago a small group that included Charlie McCreevy and PJ Mara persuaded Bertie Ahern that he needed to reduce the number of candidates on the Fianna Fáil slate by at least 20 per cent. Ahern agreed. Even though Fianna Fáil got thesame percentage of support as it had in 1992 under Albert Reynolds, 39 per cent, its candidate management strategy resulted in a bonus of nine seats, bringing its total to 77.
Fianna Fáil has applied the same principle to this election but in greatly reduced circumstances.
That rule was applied in Cork North Central last weekend. The party had comfortably elected its two sitting TDs in 2007. For this election the constituency has been increased from a four-seater to a five-seater. Yet internal polling showed that if both Noel O’Flynn and Billy Kelleher stood, the chances were that neither would get elected. Hence O’Flynn’s decision to stand down.
One party strategist said yesterday the huge number of retirements had facilitated this process but added that the decision to allow the exodus of many relatively young Ministers was a mistake that could have serious repercussions for numbers.
The same official said the ruthless decision in Cork North Central was not carried through elsewhere. The constituencies of Dún Laoghaire and Dublin South West were instanced but the problem was none of the incumbent Fianna Fáil TDs were prepared to shift to Dublin South where they would have a stronger chance of a seat.
“The reality is that in Dún Laoghaire, either Mary Hanafin or Barry Andrews will definitely lose a seat. And there is also a strong chance that both may lose out,” said a strategist.
Fianna Fáil will run a single candidate in 19 of the 43 constituencies. Micheál Martin said yesterday there would be no more interventions to ask candidates to stand down. He specifically quashed a rumour that he would ask Michael Ahern to step down in Cork East, where retiring TD Ned O’Keeffe’s son Kevin is the other candidate.
Martin explained the rationale behind the party’s strategy. “In some rural three-seaters there are geographical considerations that you have to take on board in terms of how many candidates you have,” he said.
“In some urban constituencies you have to take on board the feedback we have received on the ground. People have long attachments, commitment and engagement with their constituencies as outgoing TDs.”
The party is also trading very heavily on Martin’s image and his personality. “He is a popular leader. I think it will take a while before that filters through for the party. As a leader he seems to be going down very well with women voters,” said the strategist.
The strategist also pointed to the fact that Fianna Fáil has always started slowly in election campaigns and gathered momentum. “We started off on 30 per cent in 2007 and finished with 41 per cent. I’m not saying it’s going to happen now but I think we will improve.”
Martin has deliberately refused to set out any projection on seat numbers. The strategist said the party needs to reach its bedrock support of between 24 and 28 per cent.
One phenomenon that is not quite as marked as it was in 2002 is “gene pool” candidates – former members of Fianna Fáil who will be standing as Independents – either because of exclusion from tickets or because of fears they will be “contaminated” by the brand.
There are the two outgoing TDs who have left Fianna Fáil – Joe Behan (Wicklow) and Mattie McGrath (Tipperary South). There has also been talk of the Independent Fianna Fáil Blaneyite organisation being reformed in Donegal North East. As yet, no candidate has emerged.
