If the swing in support continues until polling day the party is set to be twice as big as any other and will be close to an overall majority
FINE GAEL stands on the cusp of its greatest election triumph and has an outside chance of forming a single-party government if the trend of the past two weeks is maintained up to next Friday, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
The poll, which was taken a week before the election, indicates that the party is not only on course to be the biggest in the next Dáil for the first time in its history but to be twice as big as any other party.
If the swing to Fine Gael that has developed since the campaign began continues at the same pace until polling day, the party would be within striking distance of an overall majority.
Fine Gael has never even come close to an overall majority. Moreover, no party has achieved that feat since Fianna Fáil took 51 per cent of the vote in the 1977 general election.
Fianna Fáil, under Bertie Ahern, came close in 2002 when the party won 81 seats with 41 per cent of the vote – just three short of an overall majority.
If the momentum stays with Fine Gael for the remainder of the campaign, the party could win about 40 per cent of the vote. Given that it is so far ahead of any other party it could be in line for a massive seat bonus.
The fact that party leader Enda Kenny has pulled well ahead of Eamon Gilmore as the popular choice for taoiseach is another sign that Fine Gael has had a very good campaign to date.
However, party strategists will not forget that in the last general election of 2007 Fine Gael support ebbed during the last week of the campaign.
The precise shape of the outcome this time around depends on what happens in the coming days.
Fine Gael will be very encouraged by the detailed poll figures which show that it now has more support in every region of the country, among every age group and across all social classes than any other party.
The party’s vote in Dublin stands at 34 per cent, a jump of seven points since the last poll, and it has moved ahead of Labour in the capital.
The strongest region for the party is Kenny’s home territory of Connacht-Ulster, where its vote is up to 44 per cent. Moreover, it has also seen a significant rise in Munster where it is up to 39 per cent, but in the rest of Leinster the party vote has declined to 32 per cent.
Among the best-off AB voters Fine Gael is now up to 53 per cent, far ahead of all other parties. It does even better among farmers at 64 per cent, and while its lead is more modest among lower middle-class and working-class voters the party is still in the lead among those categories.
A Fine Gael-Labour coalition is still the favoured option. But there has been a significant increase in support for a single-party Fine Gael government since the last poll.
The rise in support for Fine Gael is also reflected in the public choice as the next minister for finance. Richard Bruton comes first with 24 per cent support, followed by Michael Noonan on 23 per cent. Joan Burton is at 12 per cent, Ruairí Quinn at 7 per cent and Pat Rabbitte on 6 per cent.
The decline of five points in Labour support, allied to the fact that Eamon Gilmore is now behind Enda Kenny in the choice for taoiseach, will set alarm bells ringing in the Labour Party.
Instead of the battle with Fine Gael for first place, Labour is now fighting to hold off Fianna Fáil and retain second place.
Labour support in Dublin is still a respectable 29 per cent but it is behind Fine Gael in the capital for the first time in years. It is on 19 per cent in Munster, 16 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 8 per cent in Connacht-Ulster. In class terms, Labour’s vote is strongest among the C1 and C2 categories. It is evenly spread across most age groups but is lowest in the over-65s.
There will be some relief in Fianna Fáil that the slide in the party’s support has been halted. But it still has an enormous battle on its hands, particularly in Dublin where it is now on just 11 per cent.
The party is trailing behind Fine Gael and Labour in Dublin and will struggle to win a handful of seats.
Things are better elsewhere in the country. Fianna Fáil’s strongest region is the rest of Leinster where it gets 22 per cent, followed by Connacht-Ulster on 17 per cent and Munster on 14 per cent.
Across the age groups, Fianna Fáil’s best category by far is the over-65s, where it is on 23 per cent. The next highest support for the party comes in the youngest 18-24 age group where it is on 17 per cent.
In terms of social categories, Fianna Fáil does best among farmers, where it is on 23 per cent. It is stronger among lower middle-class C1 voters than among the better-off AB category or the poorer C2 and DE groups.
Support for Sinn Féin at 11 per cent should see the party make significant gains in the Dáil from its existing four seats. Its strongest region by far is Connacht-Ulster where the party is getting 20 per cent support. It is on 13 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 9 per cent in Munster. Sinn Féin will be concerned that its vote in Dublin is down to 7 per cent.
In class terms the party’s vote is heavily concentrated in the C2 and DE categories and its appeal to men is significantly greater than women.
In age terms, Sinn Féin’s strongest category is the 25-34-year-olds, where it gets 18 per cent. Its weakest is among the over-65s where it gets 5 per cent.
Green Party support has increased by 1 per cent and its vote in Dublin is up to 3 per cent. If it is significantly higher in the constituencies where the Greens have a TD the party may be able to save a small number of seats.
The level of support for Independents and Others has held up at 15 per cent and this group will almost certainly be strongly represented in the new Dáil. With support spread evenly across the country and among all social categories and age groups the number of new Independents could exceed the 14 elected in 2002.
