ANALYSIS:FINE GAEL is now in the strongest position it has been since the height of Garret FitzGerald's popularity a quarter of a century ago, writes STEPHEN COLLINSPolitical Editor
Having pulled ahead of Fianna Fáil for the first time in the last two Irish Times/TNS mrbi polls, the main Opposition party has now made another great leap forward.
The party has consolidated its position ahead of Fianna Fáil across all age groups, regions and social classes. Crucially, Fine Gael has again improved its position as the top party in Dublin, where it is now more than double the Fianna Fáil vote.
When asked how they would vote in the local elections, 25 per cent of voters in Dublin opted for Fine Gael. There was 27 per cent backing for the party in Munster; 25 per cent in Connacht-Ulster and 24 per cent in the rest of Leinster.
In age terms, Fine Gael does best among the over-65s, followed by the 50-64 age group; but it has even support across all the other age categories.
The party is strongest among the best-off AB social category, but it beats Fianna Fáil in every social category apart from the DE social group where the Government party has a slight lead.
If the results are borne out on June 5th, Fine Gael will be the biggest party in local government for the first time in its history.
For Fianna Fáil the only possible silver lining is that its support level has bottomed out with only a slight slippage since the last poll in February, despite the emergency Budget in the meantime.
Dublin is the worst region of the country for Fianna Fáil but its level of support is a little better for the local elections than the question about general election support. For the local elections Fianna Fáil is on 13 per cent in Dublin, 23 in Connacht-Ulster, 30 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 20 per cent in Munster.
Across the age groups, Fianna Fáil does worst among the 35-49 category and is a little better among younger voters. Its strongest support comes from the over-65s, with 34 per cent opting for the party in the local elections.
In terms of social class, Fianna Fáil does worst among the better-off AB and C1 groups and best in the poorer DE category.
Labour’s strongest region in the local elections is Dublin, where it is on 19 per cent of the vote, well ahead of Fianna Fáil, which is in third place.
Labour is on 15 per cent in the rest of Leinster, 12 per cent in Munster and 7 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.
In age terms, Labour is weakest among the over-65s but it has consolidated its support base across other age groups. In class terms the party gets slightly more support among the better-off ABC1 voters than the poorer C2 and DE categories.
The Green Party support is spread dangerously across the regions for the local elections. It is best in Dublin where it gets 4 per cent, but it drops to 3 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 2 per cent in Munster.
The attraction of the party for younger people appears to have evaporated, with just 2 per cent support among 18-24-year-olds.
In terms of social class it does best among the better-off ABC1 voters, before dipping among other social categories.
By contrast, Sinn Féin support for the local elections is concentrated in places where the party can win seats. Its strongest support is in Connacht-Ulster at 11 per cent, followed by Dublin where it is attracting 10 per cent support. It tails off to 8 per cent in the rest of Leinster, and 7 per cent in Munster; but on the basis of the poll the party is going into the local elections in a strong position.
In class terms, Sinn Féin support is lowest among the better-off AB voters, where it gets 4 per cent support, but it rises to 13 per cent among working-class C1 voters.
In age terms, the party’s strongest support by far is among 18-24-year-olds, with 15 per cent of them saying they would vote for the party in a local election.
The level of support for Independents is noticeably higher in the question about the local election compared to a general election, reflecting the strength of Independent councillors around the country.
The national share of the local election vote being won by Independents is 11 per cent. That rises to 14 per cent in Connacht Ulster, 13 per cent in Dublin, 12 per cent in Munster, falling to 6 per cent in the Rest of Leinster.
Despite the fact that the local elections are just three weeks away, 15 per cent of the voters don’t know how they will vote.
A further 5 per cent say they will not vote.
In terms of the national figures, the continuing slide in the satisfaction rating of the Government and the Taoiseach is striking, as is the continuing rise in the rating of Labour leader Eamon Gilmore.
In party terms, though, it is the rise of Fine Gael to the high 30 per cent range that is the most dramatic finding of the poll. The party moved into the 27-31 per cent range in the last general election but this is the first time it has moved up another notch into the 35 per cent-plus range.
If the party can maintain that position Irish politics will undergo a significant change.