FINLAND:The influential Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) warned yesterday of possible Russian "military remonstrations in the vicinity of the Finnish borders" if Finland were to join Nato.
A new FIIA report emphasised these skirmishes would be "short to medium term", but it came at a time of increased nervousness over Russia's foreign policy just days after its controversial election.
Finland, which shares a long border and a fractious history with Russia, is forced to perform a delicate balancing act over Nato membership. The Nordic country is a member of the European Union but is not an official Nato aspirant country, although it does participate in Nato-led Partnership for Peace programmes.
Joining Nato risks alienating its powerful Russian neighbour - but by not joining it could be criticised for failing to honour its commitments as an EU member.
All but two of Nato's 26 members are from Europe.
The FIIA report comes just days before next week's release of the Finnish foreign ministry's first assessment of the Nato issue for four years. The publication of these two reports on the deeply controversial issue within days of each other is expected to reignite a debate that has raged for many years in Finland.
This debate has been given added impetus by Russia's increasingly assertive foreign policy and Finland's growing trade relationship with Russia's fast-growing economy.
"Finland's relationship with Nato now and into the future will be a political issue because the debate is more than just about the alliance, it is about how we see ourselves. The debate is over what we think Finland's role in the world is and should be," said the FIIA report.
According to opinion polls, Finns are about 50 per cent against Nato membership and 25 per cent in favour, while the rest don't know or have no opinion.