First quarter growth best for three years

The economy surged at nearly five times the euro zone average in the first quarter of the year, according to new figures released…

The economy surged at nearly five times the euro zone average in the first quarter of the year, according to new figures released today.

Provisional data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) showed gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.1 per cent year on year in the first quarter compared with the same period of 2003, with gross national product (GNP) up 5.1 per cent.

"The 'Tiger' is back - Mark II," said Bank of Ireland's chief economist, Mr Dan McLaughlin, who last month pushed his forecast for overall 2004 growth to 6 per cent from 4.5 per cent.

"I'm still very comfortable with our forecast and if anything I'd be revising it upwards," he said.

READ MORE

By contrast, the euro zone as a whole grew by an annual 1.3 per cent in the first quarter and economists believe it is unlikely to post growth of above 2 percent this year.

The Taoiseach Mr Ahern welcomed the data, which comes in the wake of a flurry of positive indicators and investment news including US chip maker Intel's decision last month to invest €1.6 billion ($1.95 billion) into its Irish operations.

"I think the country is really doing well," Mr Ahern said. The economy, boosted by huge inflows of foreign investment, was the envy of the euro zone with double-digit growth rates throughout the late 1990s, but cooled rapidly as the global downturn took its toll.

However, today's CSO figures showed last year's perceived trough was less severe than previously thought.

The CSO revised 2003's GDP figure sharply upwards to 3.7 per cent from its previous estimate of just 1.4 per cent.

Mr McLaughlin said concerns about last year's downturn which had sparked fears about Ireland's competitiveness had been overplayed, noting the economy had been boosted by robust recoveries in exports and business investment.

Capital investment in new equipment and machinery in the first quarter jumped 12.4 percent from the same period last year, while net exports rose by nearly €1 billion to €5.25 billion. Both figures were well ahead of consensus forecasts.

Industry output increased 8 per cent compared with the same quarter of 2003, while consumer spending rose 2 per cent, a level that was likely to improve significantly in the second half of the year, according to economists.