Just one day to go. Nerves will be jangling in homes all over the country as the CAO gears up to publish its first round of offers tomorrow.
Despite the strong results last week, many students feel the stakes tomorrow are even higher. As one student who contacted us last week said: "What's the use of getting all these points if you don't get the place you want?"
This sentiment, while understandable, ignores the reality that a good Leaving Cert will stand to you in the long term, regardless of whether you get the place you want this year.
So get up tomorrow and try to take it as it comes. The points will be available at www.cao.ie from 6 a.m.
Alternatively wait for that letter/offer to arrive in the post. Ironically, the most nervous students may be those whose results were better than expected.
They are quietly thinking to themselves "Maybe, just maybe, I can get a place on that course after all". All they want to know is are points going to rise? For any discussion on that, we must consult the law of supply and demand.
Points First of all there were fewer applicants for degree and certificate/diploma courses this year.
Last year there were 343,717 applications for degree courses. This fell to 332,776 this year.
There were 334,598 applications for cert/diploma courses last year, which has fallen to 303,360 this year.
While the inclusion of nursing complicates the picture, it is clear that demand is down.
Supply is also increasing, with almost 40 new degree courses on offer (this includes UCD's five new engineering degrees, which replace its common entry engineering degree of last year). In the cert/diploma sector, there are over 20 new courses this year.
So the main variable that CAO observers look to - level of demand versus supply of places - looks rosy, and overall points should drop.
But forecasting exactly where they will drop is best described as an inexact science. One piece of crucial data is missing - the number of places available on individual courses for 20012002.
But you can look at the generic CAO application trends of this year and draw some rather limited conclusions.
For example, the number of total applications and first preferences for arts and social science courses was up, so those courses could come under pressure.
The number of first preferences for medicine was down this year, which should curb points there.
Likewise the applications for law were relatively similar to last year, so points should not alter too much.
The total numbers applying for engineering/technology courses were down from 63,874 to 60,303 and so were the first preferences.
But the CAO does not break down these figures further, so it could mean technology subjects had fewer applicants and engineering had more. The situation in engineering is also complicated by UCD's decision to break its engineering course into five denominated options. This could have all kinds of effects on points.
At certificate and diploma level, a slightly more reliable dynamic is in evidence - a shortage of students. Many colleges are finding it hard to fill places and the general trend is downward.
The other remaining variable is this year's grades. They were certainly good, and because the extra honours came in subjects such as maths and English, it means large numbers of students will benefit.
But grades can have strange effects when you consider the whole CAO system.
For example, extra honours in higher-level maths means more students will qualify for certain courses, but the higher failure rate at ordinary level will take a lot of other students out of the system.
Random numbers
Many of you may have the cut-off points for your course but miss out because of random selection.
This is frustrating and often causes students and parents to be suspicious of how this system works.
However, it could not be simpler. You got your random earlier this year, generated when you made your application.
It only comes into play when, for example, three people with the same points are chasing two places. In that case, the two candidates with the highest random numbers get the places.
LCVP
Several thousand students did the Leaving Certificate vocational programme (LCVP) this year. On the eve of the cut-off points it is worth restating what colleges will give you for doing the LCVP link modules.
The universities and DIT give 50 points for a distinction, 40 for merit and 30 for a pass. The institutes of technology give 70 for a distinction, 50 for a merit and 30 for a pass.