PREDOMINANTLY middle-class, but with pockets of unemployment and deprivation, Dublin South has favoured a variety of candidates over the years, only to discard them at subsequent elections.
In 1987 Anne Colley topped the poll for the PDs, but lost to Roger Garland of the Green Party in 1989. He, in turn, lost his seat in 1992, in an election that was marked by the spectacular performance of Labour's Eithne Fitzgerald, who topped the poll with a massive 17,256 first preferences, 28.94 per cent of the vote.
Ms Fitzgerald's success reflected the huge surge to Labour which will be absent this time, and the question is how much of the massive vote she will shed.
Labour's decision to join Fianna Fail in government angered those Dublin South voters who had supported Fitzgerald to get FF out of office, and her popularity took a nosedive in the aftermath of the last election. However, there is evidence that this anger with Labour has waned.
This time, Fianna Fail's Tom Kitt is expected to head the poll, followed by his party colleague, Seam us Brennan. There is intense rivalry between the two, but both have safe seats. Last time the party's share of the vote dropped by 10.7 per cent to 32.6 per cent, its lowest ever in the constituency, but it still had two quotas.
Brennan saw his vote drop by 4,853 from 13,927 and he had to wait until the seventh count to be elected; he has since been keeping a keener eye on Kitt. The third Fianna Fail candidate is Senator Ann Ormonde.
There was a time, in the era of the late John Kelly, when Fine Gael held three seats in the constituency. The sitting Fine Gael TD, Alan Shatter, will hold his seat, and Olivia Mitchell, a hard-working member of Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council, is expected to put up a strong challenge for the last seat.
Liz O'Donnell did well to win the last seat for the Progressive Democrats in 1992, given that she had joined the party only in 1991 and was a late choice for the general election. She was an outstanding performer in the 27th Dail, shouldering a considerable workload as spokeswoman on justice and health, and excelling on issues such as crime and the hepatitis C scandal.
But soundings by the PDs some months ago showed that her seat could be vulnerable, and since then she has worked to improve her profile in the constituency. Her Dail success and her close political association with Mary Harney, who enjoys considerable popularity as a party leader in Dublin South, should see her hold her seat.
For the Green Party, Gerry Boland, in his first electoral outing, will be attempting to regain the seat once held by Mr Garland. He has been active in the party as its environment spokesman and believes that there will be a sufficient swing to the Greens to secure him the third or fourth seat.
Christine Buckley, who was a central figure in the controversy relating to Goldenbridge orphanage, is running as an Independent, calling for a better deal for children. Lisa Maher is running for the Socialist Party, and Richard Greene is standing as an Independent.
The prediction is that the status quo will be maintained, but nobody is saying it with any certainty, given Dublin South's tendency to regularly change its Dail representation.
