Flynn may provide Ahern's by-election-free solution

The next European Commission may not take office until January 2000, but already in Brussels the talk is about who will make …

The next European Commission may not take office until January 2000, but already in Brussels the talk is about who will make it back to the £142,000 job as an ordinary member.

The last is due to be named by heads of government next June and will then negotiate with governments about the composition and responsibilities of his team.

Ireland's Commission incumbent, Padraig Flynn, is playing his cards close to his chest.

But there are already strong indications from Dublin and Brussels that he is "willing to stay if called upon," and that the call might indeed be forthcoming from a Taoiseach anxious, above all, to hold on to a wafer-thin majority.

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There is many a slip between cup and lip. Fianna Fail may not be in office, or may be in a different coalition, by this time next year when the choice will have to be made. And so the political rumour-mill is churning out candidates and scenarios to suit the purposes of the dark artists of political spin.

How about Dick Spring? Sure everyone knows Bertie Ahern and Ruairi Quinn are almost in bed together, and that a secret deal has been done to fix the job up for Spring.

Which, as the lawyers say, is denied.

And Mary Harney? She gets to do a flit before having to face the electorate again in a constituency which has lost a seat, and Ahern gets to plant a final nail in the coffin of the PDs.

Which is denied.

How about Peter Sutherland? A somewhat more complicated scenario is posited in which he wins overwhelming support outside the State as a candidate for president of the Commission, and Ahern is forced to nominate him against his will. But nothing less than a certain presidency would work.

Which is denied. But political denials are just grist to the mill.

How about Maire Geoghegan-Quinn or Des O'Malley?

Sutherland's name has certainly cropped up in the international press. His involvement in the Delors initiative a few weeks ago led to speculation that he might throw his hat in the ring.

His time in the Commission, at the helm of the World Trade Organisation and in business, give him a breadth of experience difficult to match. His strong personal relationships with many of Europe's leaders would also be an asset.

Delors's idea that the parties in the European Parliament should use next summer's elections as a means of mobilising popular support for candidates for the presidency of the Commission seemed tailormade for one who might have difficulty getting a national nomination from a politically hostile government.

Could a government be seen to put party advantage ahead of national interest by refusing a nomination to the choice of one of the major parties?

Sutherland made it clear at the time that he was not at that stage a candidate, although he has lost none of his passion for European politics and seemed willing to leave open the possibility. Since then he has yet to give a convincing denial.

The expected £60 million windfall from the Goldman Sachs flotation, however, would scarcely make him the people's candidate.

But Sutherland's real problem is not that he is not a member of Fianna Fail, it is that he is not a member of the Labour Party. If he were, he would be a shoo-in.

The truth is that it is the turn of the Socialists to nominate a president to follow the Christian Democrat Jacques Santer, preferably a former prime minister and from a Mediterranean country.

And there is just such a candidate, although as yet not formally declared, in the former Spanish prime minister Felipe Gonzalez.

The possibility of Santer continuing for a further two years has also been canvassed by the president himself, although it appears to have few, if any, takers.

Which brings us to the question: who does Ahern present to President Felipe Gonzalez as his Commission candidate?

Quinn insists there have been "no discussion and no understanding" with the Taoiseach about a Spring nomination. Both Ahern and Spring confirm as much, as does simple political logic. Fianna Fail owes Labour nothing at this time and could not count on winning a by-election in Kerry North.

Quinn says Spring has assured him he intends to stand in the next election and that the quieter life of a rural TD and his few directorships are clearly much appreciated after frantic years at the helm.

A life of meetings in Brussels does not appeal much to him, but he would be unlikely to turn a Commission job down if it was offered.

Yet there is another high-level job coming up in Brussels for which he appears eminently qualified and which he is likely to find far more appealing. It is known in Euro-jargon as Mr CFSP, the new role created by Amsterdam of foreign policy co-ordinator, who will be appointed by heads of government in Vienna in December.

Spring has maintained an interest in foreign policy as party spokesman, and is still involved in a limited mediation role in Cyprus. His diplomatic skills, well exposed during the Irish presidency, are well regarded and remembered here, particularly his relationship with the Americans.

A senior source in the Council of Ministers confirmed that his candidature is being actively discussed. Sources close to Spring say he has received some diplomatic queries from Brussels about whether he might be interested in the job.

He is without doubt a strong contender, though still an outside bet.

Mary Harney is even more emphatically dismissive of talk of her candidature for the Commission. A spokesman said such a notion was "rubbish. She wouldn't be interested in a month of Sundays."

Friends say she is not the sort to walk out on a party to which she has given so much, and still feels she has a major contribution to make to national politics.

Her main disadvantage, should she want the job, is precisely the same as Des O'Malley's, and indeed as that of any member of the Government. They simply cannot be spared: no by-election is safe.

And that is one of Padraig Flynn's major attractions: no by-election required.

It is not the only one. With a successful proven track record in the Commission it would be difficult for an incoming president not to offer him a substantial portfolio.

Sources close to Ahern say that he has yet to put his mind definitively to the problem, although he is both aware of Flynn's willingness to stay and not unsympathetic to the idea.

They suggest that although he has little room for manoeuvre now because of the precariousness of the Government majority, a general election and a resulting alternative coalition might open up the possibility of other candidates.

Hence the idea might appeal to him of nominating a candidate who would agree informally to step aside after two years of the five-year term; a candidate who had already served seven years might be more willing to give such an undertaking.

And what of Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, no favourite of Ahern's but whose name has also in the past been mentioned, and whose appointment would not upset the delicate Dail majority?

She laughs at the question and refuses to be drawn on her intentions. But, she says, "I don't think there's going to be any vacancy because the man who is there is likely to be staying."

She might just be right.