With just a day to go to the 73rd Academy Awards ceremony in Los Angeles, speculation is rife in what has to be the most open Oscars race in many years. With so much uncertainty abroad and so many potential upsets on the way, the studios and distributors have been swamping the trade papers with glossy advertising emblazoned with the traditional euphemism, "For your consideration".
In the four major categories - best picture, director, actor and actress - there appears to be just one certainty, that Julia Roberts will win her first Oscar for her performance in Erin Brockovich. Even then, experience has taught Oscar watchers to beware of declaring certainties.
Four years ago, Lauren Bacall was the firm favourite to take the best supporting actress Oscar for The Mirror Has Two Faces. In her long, highly respected career, Bacall had never won an Oscar and this could have been the Academy's last chance to make amends. Then the envelope was opened and there were shockwaves throughout the auditorium when the award went to Juliette Binoche for The English Patient. Coincidentally, Binoche is nominated again this year, for Chocolat, but there will be even greater shockwaves if she pips Julia Roberts. The burning question for tomorrow night's awards concerns the exhilarating Chinese action movie, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, which has already well and truly ripped up the rule book when it comes to non-English-language movies in the US. It has 10 nominations, the most any foreign-language movie has ever received.
Its rapturous critical reception has been matched by its commercial success - so far it has taken over $100 million at the US box-office, almost double the takings of the previous foreign-language record holder, Life is Beautiful. Will it go the distance tomorrow night? Or will it suffer from the recent smear campaign which questioned its authenticity?
Then there is the question of Miramax, the US company which has mastered the art of campaigning for Oscars since it scored a triumph with My Left Foot at the 1990 ceremony. Miramax is the only company which has secured a best picture nomination for each of the past nine years.
This year, it has pushed the boat out on Chocolat, promoting it with an avalanche of ads in the trade press, and it is campaigning hard to get an Oscar for the Malena score by the great Italian composer, Ennio Morricone, who has never won an Oscar. Will Tom Hanks become the first man to win a third best actor Oscar or will he suffer from a perception that he has already been amply rewarded by getting two Oscars in the 1990s? Or do most of the Oscar voters merely dread the prospect of another treacly acceptance speech from Hanks? (There are 5,722 eligible voters, drawn from 14 branches; the largest branch, actors, has 1,329 voters).
Will the dour Gladiator director, Ridley Scott - who sat stonefaced through his film's triumph at the BAFTA awards last month - force a smile if he picks up the best picture Oscar? Will there be enough seats for all the FBI agents protecting Gladiator star Russell Crowe, the subject of a kidnapping threat since the release of Proof of Life, in which he plays a hostage negotiator? Will Steven Soderbergh split his own vote for best director? He is the first filmmaker to receive two best director nominations in the same year since Michael Curtiz in 1938. (Curtiz did not win and had to wait until 1943 for his Oscar, for Casablanca.) Will Kate Hudson be the first actress to follow her mother (Goldie Hawn) to a an Oscar? Former nominees include Diane Ladd and daughter Laura Dern, and Judy Garland and daughter Liza Minnelli. Of those, only Minnelli won, while Garland had to be content with an honorary Oscar. Incidentally, Joaquin Phoenix's nomination for Gladiator marks the first time two brothers from the same family have been nominated; his late brother, River, was a 1988 nominee for Running On Empty.
Will Bob Dylan get an early present for his 60th birthday in May by picking up the best song Oscar for his Wonder Boys track, Times Have Changed? Or will he be pipped by relative whipper-snappers, Sting or Bjork (who will be performing with Radiohead's Thom Yorke and a 55-piece orchestra) - or Randy Newman, who gets his 14th Oscar nomination this year (for his Meet the Parents theme song) but has never won? And will Michelle Burke collect a third Oscar for her make-up work on The Cell? The Kildare-born, Dublin-raised artist is the only nominee flying the Irish flag this year. This is her sixth nomination, and she has won for Quest For Fire and Bram Stoker's Dracula. However, she faces formidable competition from Rick Baker's team from The Grinch.
The history of the Oscars is littered with anomalies in terms of both awards and omissions, and anything is possible tomorrow night. Whatever happens, it should make for an entertaining ceremony, given that the sharp-witted Steve Martin is the show's compere for the first time. The ceremony begins at 6 p.m. in Los Angeles - that's 3 a.m. Monday on this side of the Atlantic - and lasts for at least three hours.
This is how the nominations shape up in the key categories, along with some extremely risky predictions.
Best picture
Before this year's nomination for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, only six non-English-language films had been nominated for best picture: La Grande Illusion (1938), Z (1969), The Emigrants (1971), Cries and Whispers (1972), Il Postino (1995) and Life is Beautiful (1998). All were European and none took the award. Crouching Tiger faces its strongest competition from another big-screen spectacle, Gladiator, which is the favourite to win. But for all its qualities, does it really deserve it? I suspect the award will go to Steven Soderbergh's highly topical and politically urgent Traffic, which has been bolstered by rave reviews and media coverage which has expanded far beyond the arts and entertainment pages. Soderbergh's other nominee, Erin Brockovich, will be rewarded elsewhere (best actress) and the fifth nominee, Chocolat, has already been rewarded with its nomination.
Prediction: Traffic
Best director
The only US nominee here, Steven Soderbergh has pulled off a rare double by taking two of the five nominations - for Erin Brockovich and Traffic. The only former nominee is Gladiator director Ridley Scott, who was up for Thelma & Louise in 1991. Following in the footsteps of fellow London theatre director Sam Mendes, Stephen Daldry is nominated for his first film, Billy Elliot, but Daldry is most unlikely to follow American Beauty director Mendes to the podium this year. The fifth nominee is Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, and he should sail past Soderbergh and Scott tomorrow night.
Prediction: Ang Lee
Best actress
Julia Roberts has it in the bag for her gritty performance in Erin Brockovich. It's her third nomination, after a supporting actress nod for Steel Magnolias in 1989 (when Brenda Fricker took the Oscar for My Left Foot) and a best actress shortlisting for Pretty Woman in 1990 (when Kathy Bates won for Misery). The only other nominee who stands a chance is Ellen Burstyn for her deeply moving portrayal of a lonely widow helplessly addicted to diet pills in the emotionally wrenching Requiem For a Dream. It's her sixth nomination; she won the award in 1974 for Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore.
The other nominees are long-shots: first-time nominee Laura Linney for her sensitive performance as a small-town single mother in You Can Count On Me; former winner Juliette Binoche as a stranger who stirs up a 1950s French village in Chocolat; and third-time nominee Joan Allen as a US vice-presidential choice in The Contender.
Prediction: Julia Roberts
Best actor
Eight of this year's 20 nominated actors are there for playing real-life people, and of those, three of the best actor contenders are nominated for playing tortured artists: Spanish actor Javier Bardem for his complex, deeply affecting portrayal of the persecuted gay Cuban novelist and poet, Reinaldo Arenas, in Before Night Falls; former winner Geoffrey Rush (Shine, 1996) for playing the Marquis de Sade with such passion in Quills; and Ed Harris directed by himself as the volatile abstract expressionist painter, Jackson Pollock, in Pollock.
On his fifth nomination in 12 years, Tom Hanks is shortlisted for his almost solo performance in Cast Away, his best work since he was first nominated for Big in 1988. The fifth contender is Russell Crowe (a nominee last year for The Insider) for Gladiator.
Crowe, the favourite, gives a fine, sturdy performance in that movie, but it's hardly his best work and it doesn't compare with the outstanding performances of Bardem and Hanks. And as Bardem is unknown in the US and his film is relegated to the arthouse circuit there . . .
Prediction: Tom Hanks
Best supporting actress
Goldie Hawn won this award in 1969 for her movie debut in Cactus Flower, and her daughter, Kate Hudson, looks very likely to make it a family double for her first substantial Hollywood role in Almost Famous. That film secured a second nomination for Frances McDormand, who won best actress for Fargo in 1996.
Winner of the best supporting actress award two years ago for Shakespeare in Love, Judi Dench is back in contention for Chocolat, and joined by another English actress, Julie Walters (previously nominated for Educating Rita in 1983) for Billy Elliot. The fifth candidate is Marcia Gay Harden for her strong portrayal of painter Lee Krasner in Pollock.
A very tough one to call, given that all five are conceivable winners. In the end, it's probably down to Harden or Hudson, and the latter should just about scrape it.
Prediction: Kate Hudson
Best supporting actor
The front-runner here has to be first-time nominee Benicio Del Toro, as the moral core of the multi-charactered Traffic. His strongest opposition comes from fifth-time nominee Albert Finney, who has never won, for Erin Brockovich, but Finney's much-publicised dithering about attending the ceremony won't help him. The other nominees are Willem Dafoe (nominated for Platoon in 1986) for Shadow of the Vampire; first-time nominee Joaquin Phoenix for Gladiator; and on his fourth nomination, the underestimated Jeff Bridges as the US president in The Contender.
Prediction: Benicio Del Toro
Best foreign-language film
This is generally the most unpredictable Oscars category, but it seems inconceivable that Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon will not win this year. Miramax is campaigning for two nominees, Agnes Jaoui's spirited French entry, Le Gout des Autres (The Taste of Others), which is the strongest threat to the Ang Lee film, and Dominique Derrudere's Belgian movie, Everybody Famous.
The Mexican Amores Perros has won a raft of festival awards, but may prove too violent for Oscar voters. The fifth nominee is the Czech film, Divided We Fall, but its US distributors will be concentrating on its much more high-profile entry, Crouching Tiger.
Prediction: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
In other categories
Best original screenplay is probably down to two: Kenneth Lonergan for You Can Count On Me and Cameron Crowe for Almost Famous, and Lonergan is the more likely winner by a very short margin. Similarly, in the adapted screenplay category Stephen Gaghan's work on Traffic should get through ahead of Steve Kloves for his Wonder Boys adaptation.
I am counting on Crouching Tiger to bring its total to six Oscars by winning for cinematography, music score, costume design and film editing. From its 12 nominations, Gladiator looks likely to win three Oscars: art direction, visual effects and sound. Bob Dylan is my tip for best song, The Grinch for best make-up, Space Cow- boys for sound editing, and the Holocaust film, Into the Arms of Strangers: Stories of the Kindergarten for best documentary. As I haven't seen any of the nominees for the three short film categories - documentary, live-action and animated - I cannot comment on them.
Barry Norman introduces live coverage of the 73rd Academy Awards on Sky Premier beginning at 2 a.m. on Monday. RTE 1 will broadcast edited highlights of the ceremony on Wednesday at 10.15 p.m.