FRANCE: France is forecasting its population could grow far faster than previously estimated and reach 75 million by 2050, in sharp contrast with demographic trends in most other European countries.
That figure, compared with 61.5 million at present, would make France the most populous among current European Union members by the middle of the century, overtaking Germany, whose population is forecast to drop from 82 million to 72 million over the same period.
French demographers said they had revised their forecasts because of an increase in fertility rates, longer life expectancy and higher rates of immigration.
France's National Institute of Demographic Studies (Ined) estimated that France's birth rate could remain above 2.1 babies per woman for longer than previously estimated.
Gilles de Robien, the infrastructure minister, said supportive government policies had encouraged women to have more children.
"Demography is a very great source of vitality for France," he said. "It is a formidable source of potential [ economic] growth in the future."
Economists have been warning that Europe faces a demographic time bomb with falling birth rates, ageing populations and rising public debts.
Mr de Robien said tax breaks, housing policy and state support for parental leave had fostered a more baby-friendly environment in France.
He said that all regions of the country were forecast to benefit from the population increases, confounding fears that swathes of the French countryside would be deserted.
Nevertheless, he said the new forecasts, presented to the French parliament yesterday, were a "very great surprise" that would present challenges for the government in providing necessary services and infrastructure.
The government had previously been forecasting that the French population might expand to 64 million by 2040.
This revision comes at a time of heated controversy in France over immigration policy.
This week, Dominique de Villepin, interior minister, announced that France would crack down on illegal immigrants, aiming to increase the number of expulsions from 11,000 in 2003 to 20,000 this year.
Mr de Villepin estimated there were between 200,000 and 400,000 illegal immigrants in France.
He ruled out an amnesty, contrary to a recent policy decision in Spain.
Left-wing politicians have accused the government of creating a "war machine" to deal with clandestine immigration. The government has almost tripled the budget to fight illegal immigration to €100 million.