The French Foreign Minister, Mr Hubert Vedrine, yesterday brusquely ruled out French participation in a military strike against Iraq.
"France has no intention of associating itself (with military action)," Mr Vedrine told Europe 1 radio station. "France is trying to obtain a solution through diplomatic means, through political persuasion. We have not given up hope of succeeding."
Mr Bertrand Dufourcq, the secretary general of the French Foreign Ministry, travelled to Baghdad earlier this week and met President Saddam Hussein for two hours. Yesterday, both Mr Dufourcq in Baghdad and Mr Vedrine in Paris said there was some movement. The Iraqis are now discussing the possibility of UN inspection of the eight "presidential" sites suspected of housing chemical and biological weapons.
The French Foreign Minister was quick to admit that such progress was insufficient. The only leeway Mr Dufourcq offered President Saddam was a possible alteration in the composition of UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspection teams, adding a few diplomats to salve Iraqi pride.
"There is unanimity that Saddam Hussein must open the sites," Mr Vedrine said. "But just because some Americans want this [military] operation, it doesn't mean it's going to happen, or that it is legitimate or would solve the problem. The question is real, long-term control. We're in a race against the clock and for us the efforts are not over."
The French fear that if UNSCOM is pulled out of Baghdad prior to a military strike, President Saddam will not let it return and the only mechanism of control will be lost.
France, along with Russia, has been the most vocal opponent of military strikes against Iraq. Paris and Moscow are Baghdad's biggest creditors, and both sold Iraq huge amounts of weaponry before the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. But the French and Russians were not alone in romanticising what they wanted to believe was a modern, secular Arab regime that gave women equality. The US encouraged Mr Saddam's 1980 invasion of Iran and ignored his cruelty, corruption and human rights abuses because it saw him as a bulwark against fundamentalism.
Paris opposes the use of force against Iraq because French leaders believe it would be counterproductive. A military strike "would inflict substantial human losses, without threatening the power of Saddam Hussein," Mr Vedrine told the French Senate. It might also "create a shock wave through the whole Middle East, at a time when the international community, and chief among them the US, have shown their inability to unblock the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians."
French influence in Arab capitals has grown as the Clinton administration discredited itself as an "honest broker" between Arabs and Israelis. Paris has shared the Arabs' fear that a US strike would strengthen, not weaken, Mr Saddam. It would enable the Iraqi dictator to portray himself as a valiant hero, standing up to a superpower bully. When Mr Dufourcq travels from Baghdad to Cairo, Damascus, Riyadh and Kuwait City in the days to come, he is likely to find himself in full agreement with the Arab leaders he meets.
Some French commentators believe France and the US have set up a "good cop, bad cop" routine in the crisis, where the US threatens military strikes while secretly hoping diplomacy will succeed. Mr Vedrine refused to say whether Paris would condemn a US strike, but French diplomats say privately that once all diplomatic means are exhausted, if Mr Saddam still persists in refusing inspections, the violation of UN resolutions is so blatant that Paris could not speak out - unless US strikes led to large numbers of civilian casualties.