Both left and right can claim some progress after the passage of the controversial pensions Bill, writes Ruadhán Mac Cormaicin Paris
AFTER EIGHT tense weeks of strikes, protests, petrol shortages and blockades, the winding down of the trade unions’ street campaign against pension reform came swiftly in the end.
The choreography was familiar. On Sunday night, François Chérèque, leader of the large CFDT union, suggested on television that negotiations should take place on the severe jobs crisis among the young and older people. Sitting opposite him, Laurence Parisot, the leader of the employers’ group Medef, immediately agreed. Ministers then issued conciliatory statements welcoming the shift in rhetoric and giving their approval to the principle of talks.
The sequence was almost a line-for-line homage to a time-honoured French tradition where strikes and street protests over a major social issue are wound down when one side calls for talks on youth unemployment.
In 1995 and 2006, it was the government that conceded, withdrawing plans for pension reform and a new youth work contract, respectively, while solemnly calling for (ultimately forgotten) “summits” and “major debates” on how to create more jobs for young people. This time the unions made the gesture.
Although the unions are far from united on strategy, the two largest and relatively moderate ones had calculated that a tactical shift was needed. They could not be seen to contest the legitimacy of parliament, which was about to give definitive approval to the pensions Bill (it duly did so on Wednesday). It wouldn’t have escaped the unions’ attention that, while public opposition to the reform was holding steady at about 70 per cent, the beginning of the mid-term school holiday had made people increasingly uneasy about workers blocking roads and oil depots.
So where does this leave the parties? For Sarkozy, who came to power thanks not to any great public affection but having made a persuasive case for reforming France’s economy, withdrawing his signature reform would have finished him off politically. Now he lives to fight on, albeit with his popularity ratings still hovering at 30 per cent and a clear majority against his reform.
On the left, there are two ways of interpreting the political terrain. On one hand, the left has failed to prevail outright after investing heavily in a campaign to hold on to one of the cherished achievements of François Mitterrand’s presidency – retirement at 60.
Socialist Party figures such as Martine Aubry and Ségolène Royal have not seen a bounce in their own popularity. Voters may be unhappy with Sarkozy, but they’re not yet convinced by the biggest opposition party.
But optimists on the left believe the opposition is now re-energised. It managed to rally a large majority of opinion behind its demands, and Sarkozy’s victory will be something of a pyrrhic one.
Millions have taken to the streets in opposition to the president, and if enough of these bring their resentments and anger into the polling booths in 2012, the socialists could have their first president since Mitterrand.
And yet Sarkozy now has first-move advantage. His chairmanship of the G8 and G20 next year will give him a global platform to show off his energy and deal-making flair, while a cabinet reshuffle due this month gives him the chance to refresh and reshape his message.
Sarkozy won in 2007 having succeeded in attracting many of the National Front’s softer voters and motivating enough of the large instinctively centre-right constituency of voters to cast their ballot. The president knows that this week’s events will at least soothe important parts of his electoral base.