Croatia:Public fatigue on union issues is a worrying problem for the government's accession bid, writes Jamie Smythin Zagreb
Croatia's bid to join the EU is not a hot topic of conversation at Zagreb University's engineering faculty but it could change my life, says Luka Kapeter, a 19-year-old student sharing a cigarette with a friend standing at the gates of a rather drab, grey faculty building.
"I think Croatia should join [the EU] because it will lead to better jobs for people and a better economy," says Kapeter. "We are too small a market in Europe to survive on our own. I think my future would be better in the union rather than out of it." His friend Luka Baradic (19), who is from the richer coastal region of Istria, is more sceptical about Croatia becoming the 28th member of the EU club. "It's not the same as it used to be now Bulgaria and Poland are already in the club. I don't think it will make much difference," says Baradic.
Public support for joining the EU in Croatia stands at 50 per cent, according to opinion polls, a major drop on the 75 per cent in favour of entry four years ago.
"It has changed significantly over time," says Vincent Degert, the European Commission's ambassador to Croatia, who prepared much of yesterday's EU accession report on the former Yugoslav republic.
"There is a feeling that the union demands more of Croatia than of other countries and the recent judgment on Vukovar by the tribunal has reopened the debate on the war."
The decision in September by judges at the International Criminal Tribunal For The Former Yugoslavia to acquit one suspect and deliver just five-year and 20-year jail terms to two other Serbs - accused of torturing and murdering 200 Croats at Ovcara farm outside the town of Vukovar in November 1991 - provoked a public outcry in Croatia.
Degert points to similar dips in support for EU membership when the union insisted in 2005 that Zagreb do more to ensure the war crimes suspect and former Croatian general Ante Gotovina was sent to the Hague before EU accession talks could begin.
"We have to work a lot on this issue and explain ourselves to the public," he says, adding that public support for membership is a valuable tool to drive the reforms needed to enable Croatia to align its laws with existing EU legislation.
Volatile public opinion could yet play a key role in Croatia's union ambitions. Under its constitution a referendum must be held on whether to join the EU. A vote in favour of joining would require more than 50 per cent support of all registered voters - not just the people who turn out to vote on the day - to back membership.
Neven Mimica, chairman of the Croatian parliament's committee for monitoring the accession negotiations, says it may be legally possible for a vote of two-thirds of the parliament to change the rules regarding referendum. But it may be too late for political parties to push for this due to "public perceptions" of such a move, he says.
Despite brittle public support for EU membership, the two big political parties - the conservative HDZ and social democrats - strongly support entry. European issues have also barely featured in campaigning for the general election, scheduled for November 5th.
"The perception of EU membership during the 1990s was that it would solve all problems. It was considered a matter of survival: a choice between the dark Balkans or a bright European future," says Sanja Simic, political editor for Croatian newspaper Jutaruji List. "But the EU is just not the hottest issue in Croatia now." Even so Croatian foreign minister Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic is anxious to keep the pressure on Brussels to speed up the accession talks.
"Our strategic goal is full membership by the end of the decade. EU reforms are top of the government's priority list," she says, referring to 67 new laws passed by parliament during 2007 to meet union standards.
Judicial reform, corruption, reform of agriculture and state owned enterprises such as the shipyards are all challenges that will require further government action, says Kitarovic.
Bilateral disputes with Slovenia over fishing rights and the demarcation of the land border with Croatia are also potential hurdles for EU entry, particularly given that Slovenia will assume the six-month rotating presidency of the union in January.
However, even if Croatia can manages to meet the tough standards established by Brussels to enable it join the EU, she will have to hope that public opinion swings behind Zagreb's 2009 accession target.