GERMANY: The coalition government of Chancellor Schröder's Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party appears to have turned a corner after three years in the doldrums to overtake the opposition in an opinion poll.
It's an extraordinary reversal of fortune for the SPD: party support dropped as low as 23 per cent during the summer, less than half the support of the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU).
Now the SPD has risen to a steady 35 per cent, with the Greens gaining support to 11 per cent, according to a poll by the Forsa agency for Stern magazine and RTL television.
The combined support for the CDU and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), their traditional coalition partner, is one point behind, at 45 per cent.
The difference between the two sides is negligible for now, but it could mark a turning point for Mr Schröder's re-election chances next year.
It reflects a change in public perception recorded in another poll, for news channel n-tv, where 77 per cent of those questioned last May reckoned there would be a change of government next year. That dropped to 50 per cent in December and to 43 per cent this month.
Another poll suggested the opposition is still ahead with 47.5 per cent support while the coalition government has 41.7 per cent.
Pollsters suggested yesterday that a crucial factor in the turnaround was Mr Schröder's refusal to budge on welfare reforms.
Widespread anti-reform demonstrations received huge media coverage last autumn but interest and attendance had petered out by Christmas.
Another key decision was that to hand the party leadership to trusted colleague Franz Münterfering, who has proven a good party taskmaster and a better disciplinarian.
The latest boost to government popularity came from Mr Schröder's swift crisis management following the tsunami in south-east Asia.
Today's poll shows that 84 per cent of those polled said they were satisfied or very satisfied with the government's handling of the aid effort.
The apparent rebound of the "red-green" government will be put to the test in two state elections this year, including a crucial poll in North-Rhine Westphalia, home to the Ruhr and one in five Germans and a traditional SPD stronghold. Party rank-and-file had written off the state as unwinnable last year but now are filled with renewed fight.
Poll analysts say Mr Schröder's fate now depends on whether he can retain his appetite for reform, having pushed through painful social and employment market reforms at the start of the year, a matter on which Mr Schröder and Mr Münterfering have been sending mixed signals.
"People have finally grasped that the country has to be changed, renewed and modernised," said Mr Manfred Gullner, head of the Forsa polling company.
"It would be fatal if Schröder and the government create the impression that they've already taken care of everything. Schröder has to continue the modernising process."
The government's revival in fortunes hangs largely on the increasing support for the Green Party, which survived last year's reform debate unscathed.
But the party could yet be damaged by an unfolding scandal surrounding the liberalisation of Germany's visa regime, pushed through by Green politicians, that may have allowed hundreds of thousands of illegal Ukrainian economic migrants into the country.
The government abolished the visa policy last year, but the scandal continues to grow by the day and may damage the Foreign Minister, Mr Joschka Fischer.
Some political analysts suggest the government's rebound is merely the result of the weakness of the opposition conservatives.
They failed to put forward convincing reform alternatives last year and the CDU deputy leader was forced to resign last month over a scandal about politicians' part-time jobs.