The fortunes of German exporters revived slightly in September with the first monthly increase in exports in three months, but foreign trade is still likely to have had a negative impact on the third quarter.
Preliminary data from the Federal Statistics Office today showed that adjusted for seasonal swings, exports were up 0.7 per cent month-on-month, with imports up 0.9 per cent.
This left Germany's adjusted trade surplus at €13.7 billion, unchanged from the previous month.
Ulrike Kastens, an economist at Sal Oppenheim in Cologne, said waning global demand would increasingly be felt in Germany, the world's biggest exporter of goods since 2003.
"The third quarter should be very weak and foreign trade will not be able to support growth," she said. "The low euro rate offers some support but falling demand is a bigger factor."
Exports had been forecast to rise by 0.4 per cent on the month and imports to fall by 1.4 per cent.
Year-on-year, German exports rose by an unadjusted 6.9 per cent, while imports leapt by 14.1 per cent. In the first nine months of the year, exports were up by 6.2 per cent, while imports climbed by 8.5 per cent.
Preliminary third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, due next week, is expected to show a decline of around 0.25 percent, a government official familiar with the figures has told Reuters, meaning the economy is in a technical recession.
Data yesterday showed German manufacturing orders posted their biggest monthly fall in September since reunification in 1990, underlining the severity of the economic downturn and clouding the outlook for next year.
Reuters