THE RETURN to power of the Socialists in France, following on the heels of Labour's election victory in Britain, has persuaded Germany's Social Democrats that they, too, are poised for a return to centre stage after 15 years in opposition.
Their hopes are pinned on Mr Gerhard Schroder (53), the premier of Lower Saxony, who is regarded as one of Germany's most Eurosceptical mainstream politicians.
"I think the SPD has a good chance of winning against Helmut Kohl next year because, unlike last time, Kohl is now perceived as a man whose time is past.
"But we shouldn't make the mistake of questioning his historical contribution with regard to reunification and in Europe. That's why the slogan I am recommending to the party is: `Thank you, Helmut. But that's enough,'" Mr Schroeder said in an interview with The Irish Times.
Mr Schroeder is more than 20 percentage points ahead of Dr Kohl in most opinion polls. A handsome, charismatic figure, he is popular among business leaders, who perceive him as a pragmatic, dynamic politician with an acute understanding of the problems of industry. His lack of ideological baggage has won him enemies within his own party but he is the only Social Democrat who appeals to traditional Christian Democrat voters.
The Chancellor's declaration that he will seek a record fifth term in office next year has put pressure on the Social Democrats to name their candidate.
Encouraged by the victory of the British Labour party, Mr Schroeder has been stepping up, his stealthy campaign to gather support within the party as a pragmatist who can emulate Mr Blair's success.
A poll of SPD members published yesterday showed that 69 per cent want Mr Schroder to challenge Dr Kohl next year, compared with 2 per cent who favour the party chairman, Mr Oskar Lafontaine. Few analysts believe that Mr Lafontaine has any chance of defeating Dr Kohl but Mr Schroder insists that he will not fight Mr Lafontaine for the candidature.
"If he decides to go ahead, I would not stand in his way. On the contrary, I'd support him and I'd help out. There's a very simple reason for that. Despite our different views about details - or sometimes more than details - we're friends,?" he said.
Mr Schroeder denies that he is a Eurosceptic but argues that postponing the launch of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) would be less risky than starting on time regardless of the economic conditions.
"What has been striking lately is that Europe is spoken about solely in technocratic terms. EMU is a technocratic project. Very little is discussed in terms of politics. It ought to be the other way around. EMU was supposed to be the crowning glory of a deepening political union. But nobody talks about political union anymore. I am thoroughly of the view that it makes sense to create a single currency, but I have doubts that this is the right time, for many reasons," he said.
Mr Schroder believes that the success of Bonn's increasingly desperate efforts to fulfil the strict economic criteria for entry, to EMU is crucial for the success of the currency.
"This is not based on economics but on politics. People, especially in Germany, will only have confidence in a currency if the promise of stability is kept. Otherwise they'll lose faith in it," he said.
Despite his claim to be "a good European", Mr Schroeder does not share Dr Kohl's passionate commitment to the European project. "My generation has been shaped by Europe. We are not Europeans because we have to be to make sure others are not afraid of us, but because we want to be. But we also believe we have the right to question each step of integration and to ask if it makes political sense," he said.
Although he insists that Bonn's interest in the EU would not diminish if the SPD takes power next year, Mr Schroder is prepared to consider moderating Germany's dominant role or replacing the Franco-German axis with a "triangle" involving Bonn, Paris and London. But he believes that Bonn should be more open with its European partners in talking about German national interests, a move he claims would reduce anxiety about Germany's dominant role rather than enhancing it.
"Of course we have national interests in the same way as other states and peoples and we should define them. Because it's only if you define your own interests that you give yourself a chance of harmonising them with those of others. If you always conceal your interests and don't express them openly, you provoke mistrust," he said.
