LEBANON LETTER:Israel and US say Syria is providing Hizbullah with Scud missiles but have shown no evidence, writes MICHAEL JANSEN
NEITHER KIDNAPPED goats nor “ghost” Scud missiles disturbed the sabbatical calm of south Lebanon. Cars were few on the narrow winding roads, slinking like silver snakes down steep green and brown hillsides.
A funeral procession, lights flashing, led by a gleaming black hearse swung easily round the curves. The mainly Orthodox Christian town of Marjayoun dozed in the sharp rays of the early summer sun.
Elderly men gossiped over small cups of Turkish coffee at a cafe in Kafr Kila, a few metres from the rusting parallel fences marking the line between Lebanon and Israel.
Beyond the wire, the green fields and red roofs of an Israeli settlement shimmered in a heat haze. At the windy Ibl al-Saqi hilltop headquarters of the Indian battalion of UN peacekeepers, Maj Har Kanwar Singh Narula, press and civil affairs officer, observed: “There are no problems in this area, no problems with Hizbullah.”
He said the UN co-ordinated closely with both Lebanese and Israeli armed forces to prevent incidents that could spark conflict.
A herd of 187 goats seized by Israel last week prompted a complaint by the Lebanese government to the UN Security Council. The goats, which had breached the UN’s Blue Line, were soon returned, defusing animosities along a volatile frontier where livestock from both sides often go astray.
Maj Har Kanwar observed that infiltrations were common, normally involving a few animals, and were easily resolved.
A pond near the super-sensitive Shebaa area was raided regularly by Israeli cattle until the UN fenced it off and provided a gate allowing Lebanese shepherds to water their goats and sheep in peace.
Weapons nicknamed “ghost Scuds” are a more serious matter. Both Israel and the US have accused Syria of providing Hizbullah with Scud missiles but neither has offered evidence to substantiate the allegation.
Former UN force spokesman Timor Goksel was dismissive. “Scuds are mounted on large platforms, take 45 minutes to launch and are easy targets for Israeli drones and planes. Hizbullah has more suitable weapons. It buys only weapons it intends to use.”
He pointed out that the idea that Hizbullah might have Scuds, a Soviet cold war weapon, psychologically upset the West as well as Israel, struck by Iraqi Scuds during the 1991 US war on that country.
The force’s current spokesman, Neeraj Singh, said there were “no Scuds” in the UN area of operations in the south. The charges, he pointed out, concerned Scuds being smuggled into northern Lebanon, where the UN had no presence. Therefore, the UN could not comment, except to say that the transfer of such weapons would be in breach of Security Council resolution 1701, which brought an end to Israel’s 2006 war on Lebanon. According to the resolution, all weapons must be held by states.
Lebanon is of two minds on this issue: some politicians argue Hizbullah must keep its weapons to deter attack and defend the country; others hold that the movement must be disarmed and its military wing dismantled.
Puffing on a water pipe on a shady terrace at a coastal Beirut restaurant, Hizbullah legislator Ali Fayyad said that on this issue the balance had shifted in the movement’s favour.
Lebanese president Michel Suleiman, prime minister Saad Hariri, and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a former critic, side with Hizbullah.
“This is the golden age of the resistance,” he remarked.
Fayyad, former head of the movement’s think tank, said: “Hizbullah never comments on its weapons. We want to confuse the Israelis. I think they are shouting [about Scuds] because they know they are not going to have a war.
“We consider there will be no war for many reasons. Israel had a bad experience during the 2006 war. This war was between a classical war and a resistance war. Any new war will based on the experience of 2006 . . . Israel is [also] facing a new strategic situation following the meeting in Damascus [of the presidents of Syria and Iran and Hizbullah secretary general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah].
“Israel does not know what to expect if it attacks Syria, Lebanon or Iran. Israel does not know if it will face one front or a regional war.
“If there is war, the whole region will explode.”