Even that connoisseur of international relations Sarah Palin got a bit confused this week, incorrectly calling North Korea an ally of the United States. So for her, and for anyone else who needs it, here’s a primer on this week’s events.
Kim Jong-il just won't let it lie, will he?Sometimes North Korea's supreme leader behaves exactly like his puppet parody in Team America crooning "I'm so ronery". Most analysts see his decision to shell a South Korean island on Tuesday, killing two marines and two civilians, as a mere cry for attention. If the North Koreans were really annoyed about something they could have shelled Seoul. North Korea has more than 10,000 pieces of artillery pointing at Seoul, less than 60km away, and it could take out large parts of the South Korean capital within hours if hostilities ever intensified.
So what's Kim looking for?His challenge is to install his son Kim Jong-un in high-profile posts and ensure the world's first three-generation communist dynasty. Few outside the secretive country can know for sure what goes on above the 38th-parallel dividing line between the Koreas, but recent moves are being interpreted as attempts to install the son in the hot seat while proving to the army that North Korea can remain strong.
Is it time to duck and cover and watch for the mushroom cloud?Not quite yet. Kim and his government spent the few days before the artillery barrage showing that they had clever ways of making nuclear weapons, including a new means that nobody had anticipated. But this is about political display and gaining attention: nobody seems to believe it will escalate into a more serious conflict. A major reason for this is China, now the regional powerhouse and "as close as lips and teeth" to North Korea. It definitely does not want Kim's regime to collapse, which could cause a stream of refugees into its territory and possibly see US troops at China's border. North Korea's importance as a buffer state means China is likely to react with anger, but nothing serious.
Is Pyongyang a genuine nuclear threat?Yes and no. North Korea has tested two nuclear devices since 2006 and is believed to have enough fissile material from its separate, plutonium-based nuclear programme to make between six and 12 atomic bombs. Six-party aid-for-disarmament talks, involving both Koreas, China, the US, Japan and Russia, last met in December 2008. Since then they have been stalled. North Korea has said it wants to return to the talks but demands that UN sanctions imposed for its nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 be lifted first.
Will this latest shelling help North Korea's case?No. President Obama is furious. The Chinese, while issuing mild statements on the matter, are believed to be very angry about having this kind of instability brought to their doorstep. Every time North Korea raises the stakes, be it by nuclear tests, blowing up submarines or any other act of aggression, it has forced negotiations. Negotiations are likely to be the outcome here, and in China's capital, Beijing.
Why should I care?Because a nuclear strike anywhere on the planet would have huge repercussions the world over, rendering our current debt woes insignificant as the World Bank tried to get cash together to help rebuild one of the world's richest regions. That said, North Korea's Soviet-era bombers would not be able to evade the advanced air forces of the United States, Japan and South Korea to deliver a bomb, which means it may be many years yet before North Korea can actually threaten the world with a nuclear weapon. That's the theory, anyway.
