The world's environment ministers may have gathered in Bonn, but a decision on how exactly they intend to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, believed to be accelerating global warming, still evades them. That will come this time next year, at the earliest.
Their stocktaking talks this week have been hampered by often bitter recriminations over slow progress, as developed countries realise the pain of their Kyoto Protocol commitments is imminent. This latest attempt to promote the UN agreement and arrest climate change has exposed friction between the US and Europe, separate from divisions between the developed and developing worlds. In short, the outcome is a November 2000 deadline to conclude negotiations, which given the extent of rancour was significant.
The conference seeks to follow up an incomplete 1997 deal in Kyoto, Japan, in which industrialised nations pledged to cut greenhouse emissions by 5.2 per cent from 1990 levels by 20082012. Few countries have ratified the protocol. It must be ratified by 55 countries, including those responsible for more than 50 per cent of emissions.
The great unknown is carbon-trading. Countries/industries are allowed to sell spare credits known as "hot air", which in turn allow others to increase emissions, but the rules have yet to be finalised. This was to be the markets solution (pushed most by the US) to possibly the greatest environmental threat facing the planet.
But it seems the wrong kind of hot air dominated this week's deliberations, although the Minister for the Environment, Mr Dempsey, says progress was made, notably at technical group sessions.
Only a few small island countries which fear global warming could lead to higher sea levels that would inundate them have ratified the Kyoto deal. The ambassador from the island nation of Samoa said the West had profoundly failed to fulfil earlier anti-pollution pledges aimed at averting global warming. "There seems to be a conspiracy between those forces who might be embarrassed by this inaction and those who wish to block all action," Mr Tuiloma Neroni Slade said.
Addressing delegates from 173 countries, the British Deputy Prime Minister, Mr John Prescott, attempted to inject urgency into the process by suggesting that "all countries should ratify by 2002". He correctly identified the need for deadlines to ensure momentum. The EU and Japan supported his call, as did Ireland, but the US, the world's leading polluter, declined to set a deadline.
Mr Dempsey, nonetheless, welcomed some signs that the US is anxious to move on and ratify Kyoto, despite resistance in Congress. US acceptance that the talks are now set to climax as the presidential election comes to a head this time next year, is an indication that the Clinton administration accepts global warming is going to feature prominently as a political issue on the domestic front.
Argentina's willingness to voluntarily reduce emissions in advance of developed countries declaring their position was grounds for more optimism, Mr Dempsey noted. It is not among the heavily polluting nations.
He put down a marker on clean development mechanisms, which allow for the use of cleaner technologies, by calling for the exclusion of nuclear power as an alternative energy-generating option. This was supported by Denmark and other countries. The Minister also made a convincing case for a strong compliance regime.
More often than not, the advanced countries are reneging on their promises, "but we little countries are ready to do our part", Mr Alhaji Farouk Brimah, Ghana's Deputy Environment Minister, said. "But the commitment has to come from the developed nations because they are the serious polluters."
Yet the US singled out Saudi Arabia, which is seeking compensation for its losses that could come from lower oil consumption, for obstructing progress. Other delegates blamed the US.
The US wants to be able to buy pollution credits from nations that pollute less than their allowed limits. Its mantra is that any deal must be "cost-effective". The EU, however, says most reductions must come from inside any given country, and so a cap on the purchase of pollution credits from others is needed.
Delegates have agreed to meet twice in working groups next year before what is hoped to be a decisive final deal provisionally set for The Hague during November. In the meantime, Ireland's greenhouse gas abatement strategy is due to be announced early in 2000. "It is going to mean pain for everybody," Mr Dempsey warned. The strategy was to ensure that not all of the burden was placed on any one sector.
With the Republic committed to a 13 per cent increase over 1990 levels, while every indication is that a business-as-usual approach would see increases in the order of 35 per cent, not only is there no choice about abatement measures but they are urgently required.
