`Good Friday - The Sequel' will be playing to a difficult audience

The rehearsals are over and at last the opening night looms

The rehearsals are over and at last the opening night looms. Understudies Mo Mowlam and Liz O'Donnell have been acting out the script up to now but this evening they are due to step aside for celebrity visiting superstars Blair and Ahern.

Seats in the Stormont playhouse are filling up rapidly, the programmes have all been sold out and the curtain is about to rise on Good Friday - The Sequel.

But in the stalls the reviewers are sucking on their pencils and wondering if this show is going to live up to all the advance billing and pre-performance hype. Tony and Bertie turned in dazzling performances last year but have they lost their touch?

There is a sense that the pressure has now switched from the republicans to the unionists. Despite all requests, appeals, urgings and demands, the balance of informed opinion is that the IRA will not decommission prior to the formation of an executive at Stormont.

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Given the immovability of the Provisionals on this key issue, what course do pragmatic politicians take? They turn to the other alternative, which is a climb-down by unionists. There is little enough room to manoeuvre on that side of the house either.

The joint statement from the two prime ministers is relatively circumspect on the subject of decommissioning. It lists as one of its key principles that "the gun must be removed from politics in Northern Ireland for good".

This is a principle the Provisionals have no difficulty with and indeed it echoes the kind of language to be heard from Sinn Fein spokesmen such as Martin McGuinness from time to time.

Later in the text, the statement asks: "How can real progress on decommissioning be advanced in accordance with the agreement?" Again Sinn Fein has been laying heavy emphasis on the view that whatever happens in regard to this issue should be done strictly in accordance with the terms of the Good Friday document.

There is not much comfort there for unionists and a fair amount for republicans to be pleased but not complacent about. As a week that could be heavier than last year looms before them, observers are agreed on one self-evident truth. Prime ministers do not come into situations such as the present one unless they have a reasonable degree of confidence they will come out looking like winners.

Another truth is that, unlike last year, there is only one issue to be resolved. But even tough questions such as the release of prisoners or the structure of a cabinet were easy compared to wrenching the guns out of the hands of IRA activists. The entire peace process awaits with interest the IRA's Easter statement, expected to be released late on Wednesday night prior to its appearance in the newspaper An Phoblacht on Thursday. The pseudonymous republican scribe "P. O'Neill" may even be still drafting the text.

P. O'Neill may never be a contender for the Nobel Peace Prize but it is felt he could make a contribution to a more peaceful world by at least clarifying and elaborating upon his position on decommissioning this Easter.

The usual republican rhetoric is anticipated but there must be some kind of answer to the question: "Your associates are getting into a democratic government, so what are you doing to do with the guns?"

But that would be only one part of a sequence, according to insiders. There must be gestures in the direction of the republican aspirations on policing and the British military presence. A statement of London's intentions on the British army presence has been expected for months now: the original was said to be so feeble that Dublin had to reject it and a more substantial declaration is now said to be in the pipeline.

Different ideas are floating around. One scenario involves agreement by the UUP to the establishment of the executive on the clear understanding, solemnly underwritten by the two governments and the SDLP, that a gesture on decommissioning would take place shortly afterwards.

The theory behind it is that, since the executive would be in place, the IRA gesture would therefore be a voluntary one. However, republican activists on the ground might see it differently. Another suggestion is that the executive be set up in shadow form, with Sinn Fein receiving its allocation of two ministries, but without any power being transferred until there was a gesture on decommissioning.

Insiders say Mr Blair is "very, very determined" to resolve the impasse. If he fails, the fear is that, like previous British administrations, his government will effectively wash its hands of the North. Already some observers detect signs of strain, for example in Mr Jack Straw's legal challenge to the release of prisoners.

The word "voluntary" is being heard a great deal in the context of decommissioning and the other word coming into vogue in the peace process is "certainty". This means devising mechanisms so that both Sinn Fein and the unionists would be certain of achieving their goals.

Since they do not trust each other, there would have to be a third party or parties to act as guarantors. That would probably involve the two governments and the White House along with the SDLP and other parties in the Assembly.

If the unionists could be absolutely certain decommissioning was coming within a specific time, they could perhaps be cajoled into forming an executive in advance. If republicans could be certain of demilitarisation, meaning an acceptable result from the Patten commission and the ultimate removal of British troops and security installations, they might be prepared to give guarantees on weapons disposal and a peaceful future.

The title of Lord Longford's book on the 1921 Treaty negotiations, Peace by Ordeal, comes to mind in the current context. The simplistic view of that event is that the republicans were the ones who compromised. On this occasion the likelihood is that both sides will have to give some ground. The certainty is that it will be another ordeal.