THE GOVERNMENT is likely to be set a target by EU leaders later this week to ratify the Lisbon Treaty before the end of 2009 so that it can come into force at the start of January 2010.
It is also likely to win political backing for the retention by all EU states of the right to nominate a European commissioner, instead of the rotation of access envisaged in the Lisbon Treaty. But there is expected to be a tough debate on how this is to be achieved following opposition expressed by the Benelux countries, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, at an EU foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels yesterday.
"We certainly do not think lightly of changes that affect the balance between the institutions," the Dutch European affairs minister Frans Timmerman said yesterday. He said the Benelux countries favoured a smaller, more powerful commission with equal rotation of commissioners to give every member state an opportunity to appoint a representative.
Spain has also expressed concerns about the Irish demand that is part of a package of guarantees that would enable the Government to hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. But, despite the reservations, most diplomats expect a deal to be announced at this week's European summit to enable Taoiseach Brian Cowen to announce that he will attempt to ratify the treaty again by referendum next year.
French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner told journalists yesterday the Lisbon Treaty discussions were "panning out nicely".
"Before the end of 2009 we need to find a way for our Irish friends to join us," Mr Kouchner said.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin insisted, however, that no deal had yet been struck that would to allow the Government to announce that it was planning to hold a second referendum.
"We are still in discussions with member states and the presidency on a range of issues and the main substance of this debate will only take place at the European Council [summit]," Mr Martin said. He added that he hoped these would lead to a satisfactory conclusion.
Mr Martin confirmed that Ireland is seeking legally binding guarantees on a range of issues of concern to the Irish electorate. "If the Treaty of Lisbon is to enter into force, it requires the agreement of all member states. If that is to be secured, the concerns of the Irish people will have to be addressed in a clear and convincing manner by means of legally binding assurances," he said.
The Minister also insisted that he did not share concerns expressed by some EU ambassadors that a second referendum was unwinnable.
EU diplomats said a draft "road map" on how to solve the Lisbon dilemma caused by Ireland's rejection of the treaty would be agreed by leaders late on Wednesday night. Language likely to be included in the formal conclusions declaration of the summit is expected to set a deadline of January 1st, 2010, for the coming into force of the the treaty.
The conclusions require the approval of all 27 states, leaving the Taoiseach the possibility of a veto if he does not get a commitment on the guarantees that he is seeking from his EU partners. But most EU diplomats expect Mr Cowen to get the assurances he needs.