ANALYSIS:Relatively unscathed by Budget cuts, over-65s alone buck the anti-Government trend
TODAY'S IRISH Times/Ipsos MRBI poll lays bare the public anger towards how the Government is managing the country. Satisfaction with the Government's performance has slumped to 8 per cent, the lowest level recorded in more than 25 years of polling.
Fieldwork for this latest poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, one week after the Government delivered the first of at least four tough budgets, and almost one month since the IMF and the ECB arrived in Dublin to deliver a rescue package for the economy.
And voters have clearly decided to shoot the Budget messenger. Support for Fianna Fáil has dived seven points to 17 per cent amongst the electorate in general, and to just 11 per cent among Dublin voters. Only 10 per cent of voters from the professional (AB) classes intend to vote for Fianna Fáil in the next election.
The good news for Fianna Fáil in today’s poll is probably confined to the party’s near bulletproof performance among the (relatively unscathed in budget terms) over 65s, where support – at 33 per cent – is almost double its national average.
With 2 per cent support, Fianna Fáil’s partners in Government, the Green Party, are unchanged since the September poll. Their decision to pull out of Government once the Budget process has been completed does not appear to have provided any electoral bonus.
Fine Gael and Sinn Féin appear to have benefited most from recent political events.
Support for Fine Gael has climbed to 30 per cent, up six points, putting the party firmly in the driving seat to form the next government.
Fine Gael’s biggest gain – up a whopping 13 points to 33 per cent – has been among female voters. Greater numbers of middle-class (ABC1) voters (up eight points to 32 per cent) have also rowed in behind Fine Gael.
Sinn Féin has registered a similar gain to that of Fine Gael, up seven points to 15 per cent, and the party’s strongest performance ever in an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
No doubt Sinn Féin are riding a wave of publicity and popularity emanating from their recent byelection success in Donegal, but that may be too simplistic an explanation for this boost.
In a time of unprecedented political turmoil and economic uncertainty, it could be expected that some voters would seek out a party further outside and to the left of the political mainstream.
Labour have registered 25 per cent support, a drop of eight points since September. While Labour have fallen back somewhat, they are the second largest party by some distance and if Sinn Féin’s gain has been, to an extent, at Labour’s expense, the party may win back some of these switchers if Sinn Féin’s vote retreats in the weeks ahead.
It is interesting to note that Labour draws disproportionately on public sector workers for their support and no doubt the party will look to shore up support among this important group in advance of the 2011 general election. Currently, Labour is the number one party among public sector workers with 35 per cent support, followed by Fine Gael on 28 per cent, with Fianna Fáil attracting only 12 per cent of public sector votes.
Independents/Others are on 11 per cent, their highest rating in over a year. It is worth noting that prior to this year combined support for Labour, Sinn Féin and Independents/Others had never, since polling began in 1982, exceeded the combined support for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. This changed in September 2010 when combined party support for Labour, Sinn Féin and Independents/Others broke through the 50 per cent barrier for the first time. And again in this latest poll the 50 per cent barrier has been breached. The centre of political gravity is shifting left, it seems.
Translating poll findings into election results is fast becoming more art than science as more and more voters leave it until the last day or hour to make up their minds.
Since 1983, Ipsos MORI has tracked how certain UK voters are of their party preference in the weeks and days before each general election. At the beginning of last year’s UK election campaign, just 50 per cent of voters were definite about their choice, increasing to 69 per cent on the eve of the election.
Three months out from an election, 64 per cent of Irish voters are definite about which party or Independent candidate will get their first preference. The flipside is that one in every three (34 per cent) of Irish voters have yet to make up their minds. We can expect this number to shrink as the election nears, but to grow in the years ahead if trends in UK voting behaviour are repeated in Ireland.
From a polling perspective, what is perhaps more insightful is how individual party support divides between those definite in their choice and those less certain. For Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, more of their supporters are firm in their decision when compared to voters in general.
For Labour however, just 55 per cent are definite about their intentions to vote Labour suggesting, maybe not surprisingly, a softer vote for a party which has seen enormous electoral gains over the past three years.
With the general election fast approaching, the spotlight will shine more brightly than usual on party-leader performance. And what we will find, judging from today’s poll at least, is that voters are generally underwhelmed by the political leadership on offer. Party-leader satisfaction ratings, when averaged across all leaders, have never been lower.
Ratings for party leaders in this latest poll have fallen across the board: Brian Cowen down five points to 14 per cent; Enda Kenny down two points to 23 per cent; Eamon Gilmore down five points to 44 per cent; and John Gormley down five points to 13 per cent. Gerry Adams, who was recently selected to run as Sinn Féin’s candidate in Louth, has almost managed to hold steady his performance rating, dropping just one rating point (to 28 per cent).
Looking back over the past three years of poll data, it is clear that politics in Ireland has changed. Party loyalties have shifted massively and voters have become disillusioned with their political leadership and its ability to manage the country’s affairs.
But there is a sense from today’s poll that the change has been more fundamental than we realise. We have hit our iceberg and some voters it seems are now less inclined to rearrange the political deckchairs and may be looking instead for a new political ship to board.