Government silent in anticipation of a positive response from IRA

The Government has carefully avoided making any public demands on the IRA in the wake of yesterday's publication of proposals…

The Government has carefully avoided making any public demands on the IRA in the wake of yesterday's publication of proposals to resolve the crisis in the North's political process. Last night Government spokesmen said the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, had given the Government's position yesterday morning and there would be no further comment until today at least.

The silence is one of anticipation. The governments have produced what they say is their best attempt to deliver on the IRA's shopping list of demands. Now the IRA must say whether it intends to deliver on the weapons issue.

Speculation persists that the Taoiseach and Minister for Foreign Affairs may be aware of what the IRA intends to do, but there is no hard evidence of this. Several Government sources insisted yesterday that they simply don't know how the IRA will react.

However, the Government has pushed hard over many months of tortuous negotiations for a document that will come as close as possible to meeting the agenda of republicans and nationalists. They did so in the clear belief that on May 6th, 2000, for the first time, the IRA outlined the conditions under which it would begin the process of actually putting its weapons beyond use.

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The IRA did so in a statement issued the day after yet another round of talks at Hillsborough Castle. It was couched in the usual IRA dialect of legalese. However, it was easy to translate into a clear promise to begin and complete a process of putting weapons beyond use if certain conditions were met.

For the past 15 months, Government sources have referred back to that May 6th statement as a watershed document - the road map with which the weapons issue could finally be resolved. Yesterday's proposals from both governments represent the outcome of their attempts to meet the conditions set by the IRA in this statement.

That May 6th IRA statement said: "The full implementation, on a progressive and irreversible basis by the two governments, especially the British government, of what they have agreed will provide a political context, in an enduring political process, with the potential to remove the causes of conflict, and in which Irish republicans and unionists can, as equals, pursue our respective political objectives peacefully.

"In that context the IRA leadership will initiate a process that will completely and verifiably put IRA arms beyond use."

Cutting out a few subordinate clauses, the IRA promised to initiate a process to put their weapons completely and verifiably beyond use if the two governments brought about "the full implementation . . . of what they have agreed".

The phrase "what they have agreed" referred to commitments made by both governments the previous day - May 5th - after the Hillsborough talks.

These included the implementation of the Patten report on policing; further reductions in the British military presence; the incorporation of the European Convention on Human Rights into Irish and British law; the release of all remaining paramilitary prisoners; and a number of other measures including some relating to the status of the Irish language.

The statement represented the first time the IRA had outlined any conditions under which it would definitively begin the process of putting weapons beyond use. As such it was a major step forward. Now the two governments have presented what they believe is the best package obtainable - a package of further concessions to republicans that will further irritate unionists, but could just be accepted if a major move on weapons is forthcoming in response.

At the press conference unveiling the document yesterday both the Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, and Mr Cowen stated about half a dozen times each that the package represented the "full implementation" of the agreement - a phrase borrowed from the IRA's May 6th statement. While both skirted around invitations to call for the IRA to act in response, the implication was clear: we've delivered on your conditions for disarmament, now you deliver on your commitment.

The document doesn't give republicans 100 per cent of their shopping list. But it goes a long way towards it. Crucially, it allows for new policing legislation to bring police reform closer to the Patten report's recommendations. It promises detailed demilitarisation measures, particularly in south Armagh.

These are the two issues most important to republicans. But it also promises legislation for the implementation of the criminal justice review, investigations into allegations of collusion between security forces and paramilitaries and an amnesty for prisoners on the run. Other pledges from May 5th, 2000, have already been met, such as the full release of qualifying prisoners, and the incorporation of the European Convention of Human Rights into Irish law.

The parties have been given until next Monday to respond. If the responses show that there is still life in this current phase of the political process, further discussions could take place between then and the deadline of Sunday week. Some clever procedural manoeuvre whereby a further six weeks could be made available for negotiation before an assembly election must be called has not been entirely ruled out.

But last night the Government was waiting in a self-imposed silence which it hoped would be filled by a positive IRA response.