KIM JONG-un, the man taking over the leadership of one of the world’s most volatile nuclear powers, North Korea, after the death of his father Kim Jong-il, is an obese twenty-something with no leadership experience.
The question everyone wants answered is whether the appointment of the starkly inexperienced “Great Successor” to succeed the “Dear Leader” will lead to the kind of instability in North Korea that could infect the whole peninsula and threaten peace in the region.
North Korea, impoverished and isolated internationally, is keen to maintain a smooth transition. In dispatches, Pyongyang insisted that both the people of North Korea and the powerful People’s Army have “pledged to uphold the leadership of comrade Kim Jong-un”, describing him as the true inheritor of the country’s revolutionary philosophy.
Educated in Switzerland, Kim Jong-un was born, probably in 1983 or 1984, to Kim Jong-il’s late wife, a Japanese-born professional dancer, Ko Yong-hui, who died several years ago.
Beyond that little is known about him, although photographs seem to show he has put on quite a lot of weight during his years in Pyongyang, and he looks remarkably like his grandfather Kim Il-sung.
Some analysts believe this time abroad could be a positive factor in helping North Korea open up. But like so much else when it comes to working out what will happen in North Korea, the opposite could just as well turn out to be true.
The succession issue in the world’s only communist dynasty was settled in September last year when Kim Jong-un was elected vice-chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission.
It became clear he was being groomed for succession when he accompanied his father to meet senior officials in China, including President Hu Jintao.
Analysts believe Kim Jong-un will continue to carry out his father’s policies, with a focus on tough militarism, combined with a need to keep a firm grip on the army and push ahead with the nuclear weapons programme.
“Last year’s string of promotions at the party conference signalled a more collective approach towards leadership in North Korea, as Kim Jong-il worked to establish multiple power centres to provide support and guidance to the heir-apparent should he suddenly pass away,” said Sarah McDowall, senior analyst, Asia Pacific at IHS in London.
“There is now a heightened risk of an upturn in factional tensions within the North Korean political elite as senior political figures, doubting the capabilities of Jong-un, could initiate a power struggle,” she said.
The fact that Kim Jong-un is only in his 20s could work against him, especially in a society that values experience so highly.
At the same time, he appears to have qualities that found favour with his father, because he was chosen above his two brothers. Kim Jong-il’s eldest son, Kim Jong-nam (38) fell out of favour with his father after he was caught trying to enter Japan on a fake passport in 2001 saying he wanted to visit Disney’s Tokyo resort. To the best of our knowledge, Kim Jong-un has another brother, Kim Jong-chul, and a sister.