The Government should seek to ensure that third-level participation rates matched those achieved by the top quarter of Western states, a report on future requirements in third-level education says.
It also says the best way to improve access for poorer students to third level is to introduce quotas and extend the range of student support measures.
A copy of the report of the Re view Committee on Post Secondary Education, which has still to be published, has been seen by The Irish Times. It is being considered by the Minister for Education and Science, Mr Martin. It has also been submitted to the Higher Education Authority.
It was drawn up by a committee, chaired by a senior AIB executive, Dr Donal de Buitleir, mainly consisting of civil servants, plus an economist, Mr Paul Tansey, and representatives of IBEC and the IFA.
The report says the number of full-time places at third level, now more than 104,000, will reach 114,000 by next year, which should be sufficient to achieve the objective of reaching and maintaining a position among the top 25 per cent in the OECD.
The 114,000 figure "should allow Ireland to meet our strategic objective in relation to undergraduate provision for traditional school-leavers", the report says. However, it says this should be kept under review depending on "unanticipated skills demand, postgraduate needs and developments in competitor countries".
This differs from the view of university heads who have said that approximately 170,000 full-time places will be required to meet the State's needs by 2015.
While strongly supporting greater participation at third level, it says a "demographic decline" among school-leavers means education spending must take account of "appropriateness in terms of overall quantity" in the context of a "tightening labour market".
The report highlights poor provision of places for undergraduates and mature students in the third-level sector. The report calls for 10,000 new places to be created for mature students and strongly supports distance-learning programmes and part-time courses for them. It says the Higher Education Authority should bring forward proposals to create these places.
The report also points out the "worryingly high" rate of non-completion at third level and says significant further work needs to be done in the area by third-level institutions. It raises the problems which may accompany greater levels of third-level participation. For example, a reduction in school-leavers prepared to go straight into jobs could affect the labour market.
"Further increases in education participation rates, both at the senior cycle of second level and in third level, will reduce the short-run inflow of new entrants to the labour market. This is likely to further accentuate labour shortages and exert upward pressure on entry level wages."
Just before Christmas Mr Martin unveiled the New Deal, spending £180 million over three years. In the section dealing with third level, £30 million was set aside for improving college-based access programmes for students from disadvantaged backgrounds.
Planning the future of education: page 16