MIDDLE EAST:Six months after seizing control of the Gaza Strip, Hamas remains in control and is unlikely to be ousted by international isolation and sanctions, reports the International Crisis Group (ICG).
"The Islamists, in many ways, have consolidated their rule, and the collapse of the private sector has increased dependence on them.
"They also benefit from a substantial reservoir of popular support," the Brussels-based International Crisis Group states in a 32-page report issued this week.
However, Hamas's monopoly on power is being challenged by Gaza's traditional clans and families, some fielding militias, others throwing their influence behind Hamas's rival Fatah.
The leading families and clans - which have been courted by the Ottomans, British and Israelis as well as the Palestinian Authority - rose to prominence after the 2000 uprising.
They became alternative sources of "sustenance, protection, power and patronage" and, when the time is opportune, "resist central authority."
They were strengthened by Israel's 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, largely because of Fatah's failure to govern.
Clan militias engaged in protection rackets, smuggling, kidnapping, and other criminal activities.
Their members were inducted into the Palestinian Authority's competing intelligence and security services.
Clans frequently clashed and engaged in deadly feuds.
Consequently, many Gazans welcomed Hamas's assertion of control over the clans after the seizure of power last June.
Hamas disarmed the most violent, swept militiamen from the streets, and banned the wearing of balaclavas and face masks.
But Hamas, like Fatah, has also had to cultivate leading families and clans.
It cannot risk "blowback by pushing core Gazan constituencies to the sidelines," states the ICG.
Thus, Hamas has apparently acknowledged that it "has alienated important segments of the population" and understood that "families, with arms, numbers and loyalty, are there to stay."
The ICG asserts: "Ultimately, effective governance and any sustainable resolution of the crisis in Gaza will require political reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas and territorial unity with the West Bank, as well as a ceasefire with Israel . . . and an end to the siege".
In the meantime, the International Crisis Group recommends that Hamas should reach a modus vivendi with Gaza's families and clans.
