China's growing thirst for petroleum, tight supplies and little spare production capacity will keep oil prices volatile through 2030, the IMF has said.
"In short, it will continue to be a rocky ride going forward, with a wide band of uncertainty surrounding high expected prices," said Raghuram Rajan, the IMF's chief economist.
As living standards improve in China, India and other developing nations, oil demand will increase, especially for cars and trucks, Mr Rajan said.
The IMF forecast China will be consuming nearly as much oil in 2030 as the United States consumes now - about a quarter of the world's oil production.
"The oil market will remain tight in the coming years, and high and volatile oil prices will continue to present a serious risk to the global economy," the IMF said in its semiannual World Economic Outlook report.
Through 2010, oil prices will be subject to large swings as non-OPEC producers try to meet incremental demand, it said.
From 2010 through 2030, after non-Opec output has peaked, the world will be more dependent on the cartel to meet demand. That will also bring "growing upside risks to prices," the report said.
The IMF forecast average world oil prices in a range of $39 to $56 per barrel in 2030, as expressed in 2003 dollars. That would represent a range of $67 to $96 per barrel in nominal terms.
For 2005, the average world oil price will be about $52.23 a barrel, IMF analysts said. That is sharply higher than the $37.25 a barrel than the IMF forecast in its September report.