Analysis:There will be more than one million women at work in Ireland by 2012 if economic growth remains relatively high in the intervening years.
Moreover, while many women have not yet broken through the "glass ceiling", they are in the process of prising it open. Women are forecast to make up the majority of business, financial and legal professionals by 2012, while well over two out of five of the country's managers will be women.
These results are derived from Occupational Employment Forecasts 2012, published yesterday by Fás, the national training and employment authority, and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). They are based on the commonly used International Labour Office (ILO) definitions of employment rather than the Principal Economic Status (PES) definitions used throughout yesterday's Fás/ESRI report.
In 2006, the national workforce numbered 2.039 million and women accounted for 866,000 or 42.5 per cent of the total at work. Under the ESRI's high-growth scenario, the economy is forecast to expand at an average annual rate of 4.9 per cent over the years 2005-2010, with the average pace of annual economic growth decelerating to 3.3 per cent between 2010 and 2015.
On this basis, total employment, using ILO definitions, is forecast to rise by 17 per cent between 2005 and 2012, increasing from 1.929 million to 2.256 million in the process. Over this seven-year stretch, women's share of total employment is projected to advance from 42.4 per cent in 2005 to 44.4 per cent by 2012. This would leave 1.002 million women working outside the home in Ireland by 2012.
The low-growth scenario sketched out by the ESRI, based on the premise that a gradual correction of the US current account deficit commences this year, foresees average annual economic growth rates of 3.5 per cent in Ireland between 2005 and 2010, decelerating to 3.1 per cent thereafter. Within this lower growth scenario, the pace of employment growth would be much slower. The numbers at work would increase by just 183,000 or 9.5 per cent in the seven years to 2012. In fact, the 2.112 million employment level forecast for 2012 under the low-growth scenario is just 73,000 ahead of the actual employment total of 2.039 million achieved in 2006.
The detailed occupational forecasts to 2012, summarised in the table (below left), speak with a single voice to jobseekers and labour market entrants: if you want to get ahead in tomorrow's Ireland, acquire a high-level skill, earn a third-level degree or secure a professional qualification.
Occupations requiring high levels of skills and qualifications are those forecast to exhibit the fastest rates of employment growth over the next five years. Thus, assuming continued strong growth, the numbers employed in professional occupations are forecast to increase by 75,000 or 31.3 per cent between 2005 and 2012. Similarly, employment among associate professionals is projected to rise by 55,000 or 32.5 per cent over the same period.
In contrast, the prospects for jobs requiring few skills are relatively poor. Thus, even if economic performance remains robust, the number of jobs for unskilled manual workers in 2012 is forecast to be just 2,000 higher than in 2005.
Moreover, high-level skills and qualifications not only offer a passport into the fastest-growing segments of the labour market, but they provide the best insurance against an economic slowdown.
As can be seen from the table, if the ESRI's low-growth scenario materialises, fewer unskilled manual workers will be employed in Ireland in 2012 than in 2005. Employment among transport workers, skilled maintenance workers and other skilled manual workers in 2012 will be little higher than in 2005. However, even where the economy slows, professional occupations are still projected to exhibit strong growth in employment in the years to 2012. Under the ESRI's low-growth scenario, the country's combined workforce of professionals and associate professionals is forecast to increase from 409,000 in 2005 to 495,000 in 2012, a handsome growth rate of 21 per cent. So when you have digested these occupational forecasts, don't put your daughter on the stage, Mrs Worthington, but pack her off to King's Inns or Blackhall Place or the Smurfit Business School.